中复神鹰：价格承压，亟待新需求放量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters was 1.1 billion yuan, a 30% YoY decrease, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -8.34 million yuan, a 103% YoY decrease [4] - In Q3, the company's revenue was 390 million yuan, a 30% YoY decrease, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -30 million yuan, a 146% YoY decrease [4] - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters was 19%, a 17 percentage point YoY decrease, with Q3 gross margin at 12%, reflecting pressure from declining product prices and lower capacity utilization [5] - The company is actively exploring new demand in areas such as wind power, construction, and aerospace, with advancements in carbon fiber applications for large aircraft and new energy aircraft [5] - The company's current carbon fiber production capacity is 28,500 tons, with a 30,000-ton project in Lianyungang expected to enter trial production by 2025 [6] - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2025 to be 20 million yuan and 180 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PB ratios of 4.2x and 4.1x [6] Financial Performance - The company's cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash inflow of 230 million yuan in the first three quarters, compared to -260 million yuan in the same period last year [10] - The company's operating cash flow for 2024-2026 is projected to be 861 million yuan, 752 million yuan, and 1.275 billion yuan, respectively [12] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 0.02 yuan, 0.20 yuan, and 0.44 yuan, respectively [12] Industry and Market Context - The carbon fiber industry is facing oversupply, with inventory days exceeding 90 days as of September, and the company's inventory increased by 290 million yuan compared to the end of last year [4] - The industry's competitive landscape remains unstable, with major players expanding production capacity, including Jilin-based companies targeting 200,000 tons of precursor fiber capacity (equivalent to 100,000 tons of carbon fiber) and other companies like Zhongfu Shenying and Guangwei Composites also expanding [6] - The report highlights the potential for demand recovery, particularly in aerospace and new energy applications, but notes that a full reversal of the oversupply situation will require stronger-than-expected demand [6]