TAIJI GROUP(600129) 东吴证券·2024-10-30 02:31Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to multiple factors, including a high base effect and inventory issues in certain products [2] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 10.434 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.36%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 545 million, down 28.10% [2] - The company's pharmaceutical industrial segment saw a significant decline in sales, while the health and international segment showed strong growth [3] - The company is optimizing its marketing system, with sales expense ratio decreasing to 15.61%, down 14.76 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company's overseas business achieved revenue of RMB 8.59 million, a year-on-year increase of 70.78% [4] - The company's core products still have significant growth potential, and the high base effect is gradually being digested [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be RMB 13.385 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.32%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 609.88 million, down 25.82% [1] - Revenue for 2025 is expected to be RMB 15.138 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.10%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 816.36 million, up 33.86% [1] - Revenue for 2026 is expected to be RMB 16.983 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.18%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 1.0268 billion, up 25.78% [1] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024 is expected to be 23.61x, decreasing to 17.64x in 2025 and 14.03x in 2026 [1] Business Segments - Pharmaceutical industrial segment revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 6.188 billion, down 25.24% year-on-year [3] - Pharmaceutical commercial segment revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 5.109 billion, down 11.21% year-on-year [3] - Traditional Chinese medicine resources segment revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 724 million, down 13.77% year-on-year [3] - Health and international segment revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 355 million, up 65.61% year-on-year [3] Product Performance - Digestive and metabolic drugs revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 1.769 billion, down 34.28% year-on-year [4] - Respiratory system products revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 1.876 billion, down 1.21% year-on-year [4] - Anti-infective drugs, nervous system drugs, and cardiovascular drugs all experienced declines, mainly due to the decline in chemical drug products [4] Valuation and Forecast - The company's 2024-2026 net profit attributable to the parent company has been revised down to RMB 610 million, RMB 816 million, and RMB 1.027 billion, respectively [4] - The company's P/E valuation for 2024-2026 is 24x, 18x, and 14x, respectively [4] - The company's core products still have significant growth potential, and the high base effect is gradually being digested [4]