Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 185.5 HKD per share, corresponding to a market capitalization of 540.2 billion HKD [2][4][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 259.6 billion CNY in Q3 2024, representing a growth of 4.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 11 billion CNY, reflecting a 3.2% increase, continuing a stable recovery trend [1][2]. - The Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) is anticipated to grow at a high single-digit rate, outperforming the overall retail market, with third-party (3P) growth expected to exceed first-party (1P) growth [1]. - The "Trade-in" policy has shown significant benefits, with an increase in demand for home appliances due to high temperatures and the policy's implementation, leading to a positive growth rate for the electrical category [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 1,134.4 billion CNY, 1,208.7 billion CNY, and 1,284.7 billion CNY, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 41.8 billion CNY, 43.1 billion CNY, and 44.7 billion CNY [2][3][7]. - The retail segment is expected to generate 222.9 billion CNY in revenue for Q3 2024, with an operating profit of 11.1 billion CNY, resulting in a profit margin of 4.96% [1][9]. - The logistics segment is projected to achieve a revenue of 44.3 billion CNY in Q3 2024, reflecting a growth of 6.4% [1][9]. Revenue Breakdown - Product revenue is expected to reach 203.5 billion CNY in Q3 2024, with the electrical category projected to generate 122.8 billion CNY and daily necessities expected to reach 80.7 billion CNY [1][8]. - Service revenue is anticipated to be 56.1 billion CNY, benefiting from the acceleration of 3P business [1][8]. Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a relative performance of -1.64% over the past week, but a significant increase of 66.16% over the past year [4][9].
京东集团-SW：京东24Q3前瞻点评：以旧换新政策红利明显，Q3预计表现亮眼