Baosteel(600019) 光大证券·2024-10-30 07:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019.SH) [6] Core Views - Despite a challenging industry environment, Baosteel's operational performance remains strong, with free cash flow at a mid-high level since 2017 [1] - The company has optimized its product structure, achieving a record high in export sales proportion [3] - The forecast for net profit has been adjusted downward due to declining downstream demand in the steel industry, but Baosteel is expected to continue benefiting from its leading position and product optimization [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, Baosteel achieved operating revenue of 242.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.882 billion yuan, down 29.56% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 79.605 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.53%, and a net profit of 1.338 billion yuan, down 64.78% year-on-year [1] - Baosteel's profit per ton of steel in Q3 2024 was 153 yuan, significantly higher than the industry average loss of 142 yuan per ton [1] Sales and Pricing - The company's sales volume of commodity billets in Q3 2024 decreased by 3.10% year-on-year, with an expected increase of 6.02% in Q4 [2] - The average selling price of plate and strip products fell by 5.96% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2024, while the average price of pipes decreased by 1.46% [2] Product Structure and Market Strategy - Baosteel's "1+1+N" product sales reached 22.55 million tons in the first three quarters, an increase of 2.23 million tons year-on-year, with significant growth in oriented silicon steel sales [3] - The company signed export contracts for 4.66 million tons, achieving a historical high in export sales proportion [3] Share Buyback and Future Outlook - Baosteel has repurchased 405 million shares using nearly 3 billion yuan of its own funds, reflecting confidence in long-term development [3] - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down by 19.79%, 26.88%, and 29.00% to 10.139 billion, 10.642 billion, and 12.050 billion yuan respectively [3]