HIKVISION(002415) 民生证券·2024-10-30 07:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Hikvision (002415 SZ) [1][3] Core Views - Hikvision's Q3 2024 revenue reached 237 82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0 33%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 30 44 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13 37% [1] - The company's performance is expected to reach an inflection point due to ongoing fiscal policies and cost reduction efforts, with fiscal policies potentially driving business recovery [1] - The report forecasts Hikvision's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 985 6 billion yuan, 1,093 13 billion yuan, and 1,225 72 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS of 1 54 yuan, 1 80 yuan, and 2 08 yuan [1] Business Segment Analysis PBG Business - PBG revenue grew positively in Q3 2024, supported by government funding in areas such as water conservancy, disaster prevention, and emergency management [1] - Digitization-related businesses like traffic management and government governance continue to increase their share in PBG [1] EBG Business - EBG revenue saw slight year-on-year growth in Q3 2024, driven by active demand for digital transformation aimed at cost reduction and efficiency improvement [1] - Growth in the smart building sector remains negative, while industries like petrochemicals, coal, education, and finance continue to grow [1] SMBG Business - SMBG revenue declined significantly in Q3 2024 due to weak social demand and tight capital conditions, leading to inventory reduction efforts [1] Overseas Business - Overseas revenue continued to grow in Q3 2024, albeit at a slower pace, with the Middle East and Africa showing faster growth while the US and Canada remained in decline [1] Innovation Business - Innovation business growth slowed in Q3 2024 compared to the first half of the year, with micro-imaging, automotive electronics, and fire safety showing faster growth [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are projected at 10 32%, 10 91%, and 12 13%, respectively [4] - Net profit growth rates for 2024-2026 are forecasted at 0 48%, 17 27%, and 15 72%, respectively [4] - Gross margins are expected to remain stable, ranging from 44 44% to 45 33% over the forecast period [4] Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio for 2024-2026 is projected at 20x, 17x, and 15x, respectively [1][4] - The PB ratio for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 3 6x, 3 2x, and 2 9x, respectively [4]