GDPD(600795) 天风证券·2024-10-30 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [6][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 133.86 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 9.19 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 63.41% [1][4]. - The company has expanded its renewable energy capacity, adding 3.3 GW in the first three quarters, bringing the total to 21.1 GW by the end of September 2024 [2]. - The average on-grid electricity price decreased by 10.14 yuan per thousand kilowatt-hours, contributing to the slight decline in revenue despite an increase in electricity generation [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a total electricity generation of 346.88 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%, with on-grid electricity sales also up by 2.52% [3]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 14.78%, a slight decrease of 0.31 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved by 2.97 percentage points to 10.82% [4]. - The company’s investment income for the first three quarters was approximately 6.69 billion yuan, primarily driven by the transfer of a 50% stake in a subsidiary [4]. Financial Forecast - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is estimated at 9.8 billion, 8.9 billion, and 10.8 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9, 10, and 8 [5]. - Revenue forecasts for the next three years indicate a slight decline in 2024, followed by modest growth in 2025 and 2026 [8]. Capacity and Expansion Plans - As of September 30, 2024, the company’s total installed capacity reached 108.06 million kW, with thermal power accounting for 71.99 million kW, hydropower 14.95 million kW, wind power 9.53 million kW, and solar power 11.61 million kW [2]. - The company plans to acquire over 14 million kW of new energy resources in 2024, with approvals for 12 million kW and construction of 8.3 million kW [2].