FOSUNPHARMA(600196) 中国银河·2024-10-30 11:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit returned to positive growth in Q3 2024, with revenue increasing by 12% YoY and net profit attributable to shareholders growing by 55% YoY [1] - The company's gross margin improved to 48%, up 3 percentage points YoY, and net profit margin increased to 7.5%, up 2 percentage points YoY [1] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a 21% YoY increase in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company is accelerating its innovation transformation, with key products such as trastuzumab and rabies vaccine (Vero cell) being launched in the US and China respectively [1] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 44.7/49.5/54.5 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with a YoY growth rate of 8%/11%/10%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.8/3.5/4.2 billion yuan, with a YoY growth rate of 19%/24%/20% [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 30.91 billion yuan, a 1% YoY increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.01 billion yuan, a 12% YoY decrease [1] - Excluding COVID-19 related products, revenue increased by 6% YoY, and non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 25% YoY [1] - R&D investment in the first three quarters of 2024 totaled 3.92 billion yuan, with R&D expenses of 2.65 billion yuan [1] Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on innovative drugs and high-value medical devices, promoting lean operations, cost reduction, and asset light-weighting [1] - In September 2024, the company acquired a 50% stake in Fosun Kite for $27 million, increasing its ownership to 100% [1] - Fosun Kite will continue to collaborate with Kite Pharma on the development and commercialization of licensed products in China, Hong Kong, and Macau [1] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 41.4 billion yuan in 2023 to 54.5 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 8.05% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 2.39 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.21 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 18.71% [4] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 29.15 in 2023 to 16.52 in 2026 [4]