DTCIC(601001) 国海证券·2024-10-30 12:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jinkong Coal Industry (601001) [2] Core Views - Q3 2024 performance showed sequential improvement, driven by slight increases in production and sales volumes [2][3] - Q3 2024 coal production reached 8.87 million tons, up 4.6% QoQ and 5.4% YoY, while coal sales were 7.62 million tons, up 1.6% QoQ but down 0.5% YoY [4] - The company's cash position remains strong, with cash and cash equivalents of 15.98 billion RMB as of Q3 2024, and the debt-to-asset ratio further decreased to 30% [4] - The report forecasts revenue of 15.04 billion RMB for 2024, 15.77 billion RMB for 2025, and 16.54 billion RMB for 2026, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.89 billion RMB, 3.16 billion RMB, and 3.49 billion RMB respectively [5][8] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 3.85 billion RMB, up 3.6% QoQ and 1.4% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 710 million RMB, up 8.9% QoQ but down 8.3% YoY [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 11.23 billion RMB, down 0.19% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.15 billion RMB, down 0.62% YoY [3] - The average coal sales price in Q3 2024 was 492 RMB/ton, down 3 RMB/ton QoQ but up 18 RMB/ton YoY [4] Valuation and Forecast - The report estimates EPS of 1.73 RMB, 1.88 RMB, and 2.08 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.95x, 8.20x, and 7.41x [5][8] - ROE is expected to be 16% in 2024, 15% in 2025, and 15% in 2026, with a gross margin of 45%, 47%, and 48% respectively [8][10] - The company's total market capitalization as of October 29, 2024, was 25.86 billion RMB, with a current stock price of 15.45 RMB [4] Industry and Company Outlook - The report highlights the company's large-scale mines, low costs, and strong cash position as key strengths [5] - There is an expectation of further asset injections from the parent group, which could contribute to future growth [5] - The report anticipates stable to slightly increasing coal prices in Q4 2024, which could further improve the company's performance [4]