文 | 张阳阳 下跌个股中，晋控电力、蓝焰控股跌逾2%；山西焦煤、仟源医药跌超1%；晋控煤业、潞安环能、锦波 生物等8只个股跌幅均较为温和，收窄在1%以内。 涨跌情况方面，山西板块41只个股，28只上涨，12只下跌，1只平盘。 上涨个股中，金利华电、华翔股份涨逾3%；东杰智能、潞化科技、华阳新材涨超2%；北方铜业、科新 发展、狮头股份等10只个股涨超1%；兰花科创、山西高速、ST太重等13只个股涨幅均在1%以下。 2月9日，A股三大指数集体上涨，截至收盘，上证指数涨1.41%，深证成指涨2.17%，创业板指涨 2.98%；北证50涨1.36%。沪深两市成交额约22494.73亿元，较前一个交易日放量约1037.54亿元。 山西板块今日整体表现稳健，上涨0.61%，成交额120.25亿元，市场情绪较积极，但需关注行业政策以 及煤炭等能源价格变化对细分领域的影响。 ...

来源：中国能源网 我们认为，当前正处在煤炭经济新一轮周期上行的初期，基本面、政策面共振，现阶段逢低配置煤炭板 块正当时。本周基本面变化：供给方面，本周样本动力煤矿井产能利用率为87.5%(-0.8个百分点)，样本 炼焦煤矿井产能利用率为86.67%(-2.46个百分点)。需求方面，内陆17省日耗周环比下降81.80万吨/日 (-18.1%)，沿海8省日耗周环比下降16.30万吨/日(-7.22%)。非电需求方面，化工耗煤周环比上升1.80万 吨/日(+0.24%)；钢铁高炉开工率为79.53%(+0.53个百分点)；水泥熟料产能利用率为39.4%(-5.79个百分 点)。价格方面，本周秦港Q5500煤价收报692元/吨(+1元/吨)；京唐港主焦煤价格收报1700元/吨(-80元/ 吨)。值得注意的是，本周海外供给端突发扰动，印尼政府1月向主要矿商下达的产量配额比2025年水平 降低40％至70%，引起行业协会反对，已暂停现货煤炭出口。此前2022年印尼也曾短暂停止出口，本次 印尼暂停现货出口的影响以及具体减产力度仍需跟踪验证。我们认为，印尼政府将2026年煤炭生产配额 设定为6亿吨，较2025年实际产量7.9 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 煤炭开采 印尼减产"黑天鹅"来袭——"机"至 行情回顾（2026.2.2~2026.2.6）： 中信煤炭指数 3868.96 点，下降 0.61%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.72pct，位列中信 板块涨跌幅榜第 18 位。 早在去年年底我们发布的《伺机而动》报告中，投资建议便明确提出"若依据目 前基本面情况静态线性外推，煤炭市场缺乏想象空间，因此我们始终强调投资要 遵循"绩优则股优"的原则。若发生"黑天鹅"（特殊事件）扰动，煤价打开想象 空间，高煤价助力公司消化估值"。 据路透社（Reuters）2 月 4 日发布的消息，周二（2 月 3 日），行业官员表示， 由于印尼政府提议大幅削减煤炭产量，印尼煤炭矿企已暂停现货煤炭出口，导致 亚洲的进口买家无法从全球最大的煤炭出口国获得供应。上个月，印尼对主要矿 商发布了产量配额，该配额较 2025 年的水平降低了 40%至 70%，这是其计划 将产量削减近四分之一并提高价格的一部分措施。 去年底至今的几乎每一篇报告，我们均在强调今年煤炭市场重点关注的地方在于 海外，而非国内。一旦 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to recover gradually to a reasonable price level of around 750 CNY/ton, influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand due to seasonal factors [3][5] - The report highlights that the price of thermal coal has reached a turning point, with a projected upward trajectory supported by policy adjustments and market dynamics [5][14] - The focus on both cyclical recovery and dividend stability presents a dual investment logic for coal stocks, suggesting that now is an opportune time for investment [6][15] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and potentially exceeding the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at 860 CNY [5][14] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply-demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][14] Key Market Indicators - As of February 6, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 695 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 3 CNY from the previous week [3][20] - The report notes a decrease in the production rate of coal mines, with the operating rate for 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia at 82.7% [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main lines for selecting coal stocks: 1. Cyclical logic: companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal 2. Dividend logic: China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhuo Co. and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Xinjie Energy and Guanghui Energy [6][15] Company Performance - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 0.62%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71 percentage points [8][24] - Major coal companies showed varied performance, with some experiencing significant gains while others faced declines [24][26]

煤炭 2026 年 02 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《煤价回归合理才是常态，稳煤价逻 辑依旧—行业周报》-2026.2.1 《2025Q4 煤价环比改善，重视周期弹 性—行业点评报告》-2026.1.27 《煤价动态波动中寻求合理点位，稳 字是核心—行业周报》-2026.1.25 印尼进口煤价中枢有望提高，稳煤价逻辑依旧 ——行业周报 王高展（分析师） 程镱（分析师） wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070003 chengyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525090001 本周要闻回顾：印尼进口煤价中枢有望提高，稳煤价逻辑依旧 动力煤方面：动力煤价格微跌，截至 2 月 6 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 695 元/吨，环比上涨 3 元/吨，前期已经完成了我们估算的第四目标价格区间，即 800-860 元区间。目前回调至煤电盈利均分的 750 元价格以下，我们预计未来价 格将逐步修复到 750 元 ...

我们认为煤炭板块周期底部已经确认在 25Q2，供需格局已经显现了逆转拐点，下行 风险充分释放。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 煤炭《印尼削减产量配额，搅动全球煤炭贸易》 2026.02.04 煤炭《持仓略有提升，焦炭第一轮提价》 2026.02.02 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260202》2026.02.02 煤炭《Q4 基金持仓持续回升，板块拐点确认》 2026.01.30 煤炭《地产政策多部门联动稳预期，非电需求有 望修复》2026.01.25 印尼大幅消减产量配额，继续看好全球煤价上行 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 煤炭行业周报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 王楠瑀(分析师) | 021-38032030 | wangnanyu@gtht.com | S0880525070029 | | 邓铖琦(分析师) | 010-839 ...

印尼大幅消减产量配额，继续看好全球煤价上行 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 煤炭行业周报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 王楠瑀(分析师) | 021-38032030 | wangnanyu@gtht.com | S0880525070029 | | 邓铖琦(分析师) | 010-83939825 | dengchengqi@gtht.com | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读： 我们认为煤炭板块周期底部已经确认在 25Q2，供需格局已经显现了逆转拐点，下行 风险充分释放。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 煤炭《印尼削减产量配额，搅动全球煤炭贸易》 2026.02.04 煤炭《持仓略有提升，焦炭第一轮提价》 2026.02.02 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260202》2026.02.02 煤炭《Q4 基金持仓持续回升，板 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业周报（2026 年第 6 期） 本周动力煤市场稳中有升，进口煤优势进一步收窄 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-08 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 02/25 04/25 07/25 09/25 11/25 02/26 煤炭开采 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]沈涛 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523030001 | | SFC CE No. AUS961 | | | 010-59136686 | | | shentao@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： 安鹏 | | | | SAC 执证号：S0260512030008 | | SFC CE No. BNW176 | | | 021-38003693 | | | an ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the coal industry, including 晋控煤业, 山煤国际, 潞安环能, 华阳股份, 兖矿能源, 中国神华, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中广核矿业 [2][14] Core Insights - The reduction in coal production in Indonesia has heightened expectations for supply contraction, which is anticipated to positively impact coal prices post-holiday [6][9] - The report forecasts that coal prices may return to a seasonal fluctuation range of 750-1000 RMB/ton, driven by domestic capacity reductions and Indonesian production cuts [9][10] - The report highlights the importance of companies with high spot market exposure and improved balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which are expected to be less affected by production limits [9][14] Summary by Sections Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuation, and Ratings - 晋控煤业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.68 RMB, PE for 2024A is 9, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 山煤国际: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.14 RMB, PE for 2024A is 10, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 潞安环能: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.82 RMB, PE for 2024A is 16, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 华阳股份: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.62 RMB, PE for 2024A is 15, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 兖矿能源: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.44 RMB, PE for 2024A is 11, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 中国神华: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.95 RMB, PE for 2024A is 14, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 陕西煤业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.31 RMB, PE for 2024A is 10, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 中煤能源: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.46 RMB, PE for 2024A is 10, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 中广核矿业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.04 HKD, PE for 2024A is 93, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 新集能源: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.92 RMB, PE for 2024A is 8, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 淮北矿业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.80 RMB, PE for 2024A is 7, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 兰花科创: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.49 RMB, PE for 2024A is 13, rated as "Cautiously Recommended" [2] Market Dynamics - The coal market has seen a slight increase in prices due to ongoing supply constraints and decreasing port inventories, with expectations for a price surge post-holiday as downstream operations resume [9][10] - The report notes that the coal consumption by power plants remains high, despite a week-on-week decrease, indicating strong demand [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal price trends and the performance of coal companies in light of changing market conditions [10][19]

供给收缩或提振煤价，逢低再布局弹性标的 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 07 日 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 19,855.11 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 19,441.23 | 2026-02-02 配置机会》2026-01-31 2026-01-24 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 202 ...