Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to recover gradually to a reasonable price level of around 750 CNY/ton, influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand due to seasonal factors [3][5] - The report highlights that the price of thermal coal has reached a turning point, with a projected upward trajectory supported by policy adjustments and market dynamics [5][14] - The focus on both cyclical recovery and dividend stability presents a dual investment logic for coal stocks, suggesting that now is an opportune time for investment [6][15] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and potentially exceeding the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at 860 CNY [5][14] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply-demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][14] Key Market Indicators - As of February 6, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 695 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 3 CNY from the previous week [3][20] - The report notes a decrease in the production rate of coal mines, with the operating rate for 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia at 82.7% [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main lines for selecting coal stocks: 1. Cyclical logic: companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal 2. Dividend logic: China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhuo Co. and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Xinjie Energy and Guanghui Energy [6][15] Company Performance - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 0.62%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71 percentage points [8][24] - Major coal companies showed varied performance, with some experiencing significant gains while others faced declines [24][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to recover gradually to a reasonable price level of around 750 CNY/ton, influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand due to seasonal factors [3][5] - The report highlights that the price of thermal coal has reached a turning point, with a projected upward trajectory supported by policy adjustments and market dynamics [5][14] - The focus on both cyclical recovery and dividend stability presents a dual investment logic for coal stocks, suggesting that now is an opportune time for investment [6][15] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at 860 CNY/ton [5][14] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][14] Market Performance - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 0.62%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71 percentage points [8][24] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 15.71, and the PB ratio is 1.38, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [8][9] Key Indicators - As of February 6, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 695 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 3 CNY/ton from the previous week [3][20] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was reported at 1660 CNY/ton, down from 1800 CNY/ton, indicating a significant weekly decline [20][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a selection of coal stocks based on two main strategies: cyclical recovery and dividend stability, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [6][15] - Key stocks recommended include: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for cyclical logic; 中国神华, 中煤能源 for dividend potential; 神火股份, 电投能源 for diversified aluminum elasticity; 新集能源, 广汇能源 for growth logic [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal sector as "Overweight" [4]. Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has confirmed a cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downward risks [2]. - The report anticipates a new upward cycle for coal and downstream thermal power demand starting in 2026, driven by significant production cuts in Indonesia, which are expected to accelerate global coal prices [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend core dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, along with Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jincheng Anthracite Mining [4]. Market Tracking - As of February 5, 2026, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 702 RMB/ton, up 2 RMB/ton (0.3%) from the previous week [7]. - Domestic supply remains stable while imports continue to decline, with expectations of a slight recovery in demand during the off-season [4][6]. Coal Price Trends - The report notes that the average domestic price is expected to end a four-year decline and begin to rise in 2026, with a projected average price of 683 RMB/ton for Q5500 coal at Qinhuangdao [4][26]. - The report highlights that the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1700 RMB/ton, down 80 RMB/ton (-4.5%) from the previous week [34]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - As of February 5, 2026, coal inventories at Qinhuangdao decreased by 20,000 tons (-3.5%), with total inventories at northern ports down by 184,500 tons (-5.5%) [21]. - The report indicates an increase in railway inflow to Qinhuangdao Port, with a total of 479,000 tons, up 76,000 tons (18.9%) from the previous week [25]. International Coal Prices - The report mentions that the Newcastle coal price has increased by 2 USD/ton (2.3%) as of February 5, 2026, while the cost of domestic coal remains lower than that of imported coal [16][41]. - Indonesian coal prices have also seen an increase, with Q4200 coal priced at 48 USD/ton, up 1 USD/ton (1.2%) [19].

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight" [4]. Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has confirmed its cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downward risks [2]. - The report anticipates that the coal and downstream thermal power demand will enter a new upward cycle starting in 2026, driven by significant production cuts in Indonesia, which are expected to accelerate global coal prices into an upward trend [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend core dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, along with Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jinneng Holding [4]. Market Tracking - As of February 5, 2026, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 702 RMB/ton, up 2 RMB/ton (0.3%) from the previous week [7]. - Domestic supply remains stable while imports continue to decline, with expectations of a slight recovery in demand during the off-season [4][6]. Coal Price Trends - The report notes that the average domestic price is expected to end a four-year decline and begin to recover in 2026, with a projected average price of around 683 RMB/ton for Q5500 coal [4][26]. - The report highlights that the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1700 RMB/ton, down 80 RMB/ton (-4.5%) from the previous week [34]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of coking coal at three major ports is 2.663 million tons, down 4.9% from the previous week [51]. - The report indicates a decrease in inventories at major ports, with Qinhuangdao's inventory at 5.55 million tons, down 3.5% from the previous week [21]. International Coal Prices - The report mentions that the Newcastle coal price has increased by 2 USD/ton (2.3%) as of February 5, 2026, while the cost of domestic coal remains lower than that of imported coal [16][41]. - Indonesian coal prices have also seen an increase, with Q4200 coal priced at 48 USD/ton, up 1 USD/ton (1.2%) [19].

Core Viewpoints - The coal market is experiencing a slight recovery, with the advantage of imported coal narrowing further [7][81] - The overall profitability of the coal mining industry is expected to improve in 2026 after a significant decline in 2025 [7][84] Market Dynamics - The CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 698 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2 RMB/ton [13][82] - The average daily consumption of coal in coastal power plants is 208,000 tons, with a stock availability of 15.4 days [22][28] - The coal inventory at major ports decreased by 5.5% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [22][28] Industry Insights - The coal mining industry saw a profit total of 352 billion RMB in 2025, a year-on-year decline of 42% [7][84] - The expected supply-demand balance in 2026 is anticipated to support coal prices, with a significant reduction in supply growth [7][84] - The long-term contracts for coal supply in 2026 are expected to enhance the fulfillment rate due to increased market factors [84][85] Key Companies - Major companies with stable dividends include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal [7] - Companies benefiting from improved demand expectations and supply contraction include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7] - Companies with long-term growth potential include Huayang Co., New Energy Co., and Baofeng Energy [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the coal industry, including 晋控煤业, 山煤国际, 潞安环能, 华阳股份, 兖矿能源, 中国神华, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中广核矿业 [2][14] Core Insights - The reduction in coal production in Indonesia has heightened expectations for supply contraction, which is anticipated to positively impact coal prices post-holiday [6][9] - The report forecasts that coal prices may return to a seasonal fluctuation range of 750-1000 RMB/ton, driven by domestic capacity reductions and Indonesian production cuts [9][10] - The report highlights the importance of companies with high spot market exposure and improved balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which are expected to be less affected by production limits [9][14] Summary by Sections Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuation, and Ratings - 晋控煤业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.68 RMB, PE for 2024A is 9, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 山煤国际: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.14 RMB, PE for 2024A is 10, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 潞安环能: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.82 RMB, PE for 2024A is 16, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 华阳股份: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.62 RMB, PE for 2024A is 15, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 兖矿能源: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.44 RMB, PE for 2024A is 11, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 中国神华: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.95 RMB, PE for 2024A is 14, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 陕西煤业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.31 RMB, PE for 2024A is 10, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 中煤能源: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.46 RMB, PE for 2024A is 10, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 中广核矿业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.04 HKD, PE for 2024A is 93, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 新集能源: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.92 RMB, PE for 2024A is 8, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 淮北矿业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.80 RMB, PE for 2024A is 7, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 兰花科创: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.49 RMB, PE for 2024A is 13, rated as "Cautiously Recommended" [2] Market Dynamics - The coal market has seen a slight increase in prices due to ongoing supply constraints and decreasing port inventories, with expectations for a price surge post-holiday as downstream operations resume [9][10] - The report notes that the coal consumption by power plants remains high, despite a week-on-week decrease, indicating strong demand [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal price trends and the performance of coal companies in light of changing market conditions [10][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Yancoal Energy, and China Shenhua [5][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that supply constraints, particularly from Indonesia, are expected to support coal prices, suggesting a favorable environment for investment in flexible coal stocks [7][8]. - The coal market is anticipated to maintain a weak supply-demand balance as the Chinese New Year approaches, but with expectations of rising global coal prices due to reduced supply from Indonesia [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for coal prices to rise, recommending a focus on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, as well as those with significant production capacity growth [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 19,855.11 billion [2]. 2. Company Performance - Key companies such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy are projected to have strong earnings per share (EPS) growth, with respective estimates for 2026 at 0.40 and 0.76 [5]. - The report tracks the operational performance of listed companies, noting their dividend policies and growth prospects [12][14]. 3. Coal Price Tracking - The report provides insights into coal price trends, indicating that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port has seen a slight increase, while coking coal prices have experienced a decline [8][9]. - As of February 6, 2026, the average daily production of thermal coal from sample mines was 5.281 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.90% [8]. 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that supply from Indonesia is tightening due to government-imposed production cuts, which is expected to impact global coal prices positively [7][8]. - Demand for coal is projected to decline as industrial electricity consumption decreases with the approach of the Chinese New Year [7][8]. 5. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment themes: focusing on high-dividend, low-valuation stocks, companies with significant production growth, and those positioned for recovery in coking coal prices [8][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][26]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline significantly in 2026 due to the revision of the RKAB quota, with production set at approximately 600 million tons, a notable decrease from 740 million tons in 2025 [6][7]. - The reduction in coal production is anticipated to lead to a tightening of coal supply, which may drive up global coal prices, particularly for thermal coal [7]. - The Indonesian government is implementing policies to control coal production and exports, aiming to enhance domestic energy security and increase fiscal revenue through coal export taxes [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total number of listed companies in the coal industry is 37, with a total market capitalization of approximately 198.55 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 194.41 billion yuan [2]. Regulatory Changes - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is reviewing the RKAB quotas, which are crucial for coal mining operations. The approval rate for the first batch of RKAB in 2026 was only 71.49%, with significant reductions in approved quotas for many companies [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic market obligation (DMO) will be adjusted to ensure local demand is met before allowing coal exports. The DMO demand is expected to remain above 250 million tons [7]. - The report predicts that Indonesia's coal exports will face substantial declines starting in Q2 2026, which will further constrain global coal supply and potentially elevate prices [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-elasticity stocks in the thermal coal sector, including companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Huayang Co., and others, as they are expected to benefit from rising coal prices [7].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the industry rating to "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The Indonesian government has proposed a significant reduction in coal production, leading to a suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners, which is expected to exceed market expectations [2][3] - The production quota for 2026 is set at approximately 600 million tons, a substantial decrease from the actual production of 790 million tons in 2025, with core miners facing reductions of 40%-70% [2] - The suspension of spot exports is anticipated to create a supply gap in the global thermal coal market, benefiting international coal prices, particularly for low-calorific thermal coal, which is Indonesia's main export variety [3] Summary by Sections Industry Events - Indonesian miners have halted spot coal exports due to a government-imposed production cut, which has raised concerns about potential layoffs and mine closures [1] - The reduction in coal production quotas is expected to reshape trade patterns, with a quick recovery of exports being unlikely unless the government relaxes its production cut requirements [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that rising overseas coal prices could boost domestic coal price expectations, leading to an upgrade in the industry rating [3] - Companies such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Shanxi Coal International are expected to benefit from this situation [3]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies directly benefiting from Indonesian coal resources, including China Qinfa, Power Development, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and others [11]. Core Insights - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline by approximately 5.5% in 2025, with production estimated at 790 million tons, down from 836 million tons in 2024 [1][14]. - As the world's largest coal exporter, Indonesia's coal exports are projected to decrease by about 5.0% in 2025, with total exports expected to reach 505 million tons [2][20]. - The report highlights significant declines in coal export revenue and tax contributions, leading to increased fiscal pressure on the Indonesian government [3][28]. - Domestic coal demand is expected to grow robustly, driven by population growth and increasing electricity needs [31]. - The Indonesian government plans to implement a series of policies to tighten coal production quotas, increase export taxes, and enhance domestic market obligations (DMO) to support coal prices and increase tax revenue [4][36]. Summary by Sections Coal Production and Export Trends - In 2025, Indonesia's coal production is projected to be 790 million tons, a decrease of 5.5% from 2024 [1][14]. - The coal export volume for 2025 is expected to be 505 million tons, reflecting a 5.0% decline compared to the previous year [2][20]. - The export revenue for coal (excluding lignite) in the first eleven months of 2025 is reported at $22.17 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.27% [28]. Domestic Demand and Policy Changes - The IEA forecasts that Indonesia's coal consumption will reach approximately 266 million tons in 2025, primarily due to population growth and economic expansion [31]. - The Indonesian government is set to implement a "combination policy" to manage coal supply actively, which includes tightening production quotas and increasing export taxes [4][36]. Regulatory and Taxation Framework - New regulations will impose a progressive export tax ranging from 1% to 11%, depending on coal type and price, effective from 2026 [9][44]. - The introduction of stricter mining rights taxes linked to coal quality and production methods is expected to raise operational costs for coal producers [45]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes investment in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the changes in the Indonesian coal market, particularly those with strong domestic market presence and resilience to price fluctuations [11].