供给收缩叠加大宗叙事，持续看好煤炭板块表现 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 28 日 评级： 增持（维持） 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 20,999.46 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 20,568.53 | 布局弹性标的》2026-02-07 有望上行推荐弹性》2026-02-07 2026-02-02 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 202 ...

| 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601001 | 晋控煤业 | 16.95 | 1.68 | 1.01 | 1.32 | 10 | 17 | 13 | 推荐 | | 600546 | 山煤国际 | 11.79 | 1.14 | 0.67 | 1.17 | 10 | 18 | 10 | 推荐 | | 601699 | 潞安环能 | 14.89 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 1.01 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 推荐 | | 600348 | 华阳股份 | 10.09 | 0.62 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 16 | 21 | 15 | 推荐 | | 600188 | 兖矿能源 | 17.72 | 1.44 | 0.94 | 1.18 | 12 | 19 | 15 | 推荐 | | 6010 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 2月27日，晋控煤业在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司财务管理方面，建立了规范 的内控管理、财务管理等相关制度，保障财务运作合规高效。 ...

公司 2025 年产销量超 3,000 万吨，受市场影响销量略弱，但受益于 2024 年结转库存，销售节奏平稳。归母净利润优于市场预期，但具体 经营指标尚未公布。 塔山矿原煤热值约 4,000 大卡，色连矿 3,000 多大卡。2025 年为提升 外销煤热值，塔山矿港口下水煤提升至 5,500 大卡，色连矿提升至 4,230 大卡，该安排目前延续。 近期煤价上涨主要体现在港口端，产地端不明显。若上涨持续，可能传 导至坑口。客户未见提前下单或锁价行为，市场波动对实际成交影响不 显著。 坑口无库存，港口库存约十几万至二十万吨，属正常水平。母公司应付 账款构成暂无法拆分说明。 账上资金主要为拟进行的资产收购储备，该项目暂缓但未终止，资金用 于应对后续可能的项目推进，预计建设千万吨矿井成本约 100 亿元。 2025 年资产收购未推进，等待集团领导换届后新政策。公司持续提升 分红比例，2024 年度为 45%，2026 年目标为 45%-50%，目前仅考 虑年度分红。 长协与现货占比稳定在"46 开或 55 开"。港口长协按上限 770 销售， 坑口 570。2026 年坑口长协煤价与神华、中煤齐平，港口仍按上限机 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slow recovery in domestic coal supply and an expected reduction in imports, which is anticipated to support continued increases in coal prices [1]. - As of February 13, 2026, the spot prices for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port showed increases, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades rising by 23, 25, and 23 RMB/ton respectively [1]. - The report notes that the average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 4.54% week-on-week, while the outflow rose by 14.42% [1]. - The report suggests that the current tight supply conditions, coupled with increased demand from downstream sectors, will likely sustain coal prices in the near term [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The State Council issued guidelines on improving the national unified electricity market system, aiming for significant market participation by 2030 and full establishment by 2035 [8]. - Safety production measures in coal mines are being emphasized, with a focus on intelligent operations and strict enforcement of safety regulations [8]. Price Trends - Domestic thermal coal prices remained stable, with specific grades reporting no change in price [9][11]. - International thermal coal prices showed slight increases, with Indonesian coal prices rising by 1.2% [10]. Inventory and Supply - The Bohai Rim ports reported a decrease in coal inventory, with a total of 24.15 million tons as of February 14, 2026, down 1.96% from the previous week [21]. - The report indicates that the number of vessels anchored at the Bohai Rim ports decreased, reflecting tighter supply conditions [21]. Freight Rates - Domestic coastal freight rates decreased by 2.90%, while international freight rates showed mixed trends [28]. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal market is expected to perform well post-holiday, driven by domestic price increases as demand shifts towards domestic coal procurement due to rising overseas prices [1][7] - The focus for the coal market this year is on overseas developments rather than domestic factors, with potential "black swan" events in the overseas market, particularly related to U.S. demand and Indonesian production cuts, being crucial for price movements [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of Indonesian coal supply and its impact on global coal prices, suggesting that significant production cuts could lead to a tight global coal market and higher prices [2] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Coal Index reached 3940.86 points, up 1.86%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.5 percentage points during the week of February 9 to February 13, 2026 [77] - Domestic coal production was largely halted during the holiday, but overseas coal prices continued to rise, leading to an expectation of increased domestic prices as demand shifts [1][7] Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Supply constraints have led to stable price increases before the holiday, with port inventories declining and daily consumption at power plants decreasing [11][27][30] - **Coking Coal**: Prices remained stable as downstream inventory replenishment ended, with a focus on the impact of Mongolian coal imports [35][42] - **Coke**: The market is expected to remain stable post-holiday, with attention on downstream demand recovery [53][75] Key Companies - The report highlights several companies as key investment targets, including: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) with a "Buy" rating and projected EPS growth [9] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH) also rated "Buy" [9] - New Energy (601918.SH) and Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) with "Buy" ratings [9] - Companies with overseas operations such as China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia are noted for their potential benefits from overseas market dynamics [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the coal industry is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with a favorable combination of fundamentals and policies, making it a good time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The report highlights a significant increase in coal prices, with Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal price reaching 717 CNY/ton, up 24 CNY/ton week-on-week, driven by optimistic market expectations post-holiday and reduced supply from major coal-producing regions [11][30] - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand balance in the short term, with a medium to long-term supply gap expected to persist, reinforcing the investment logic in coal assets [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Tracking - As of February 13, the market price for Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal is 717 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.5% [6][30] - International coal prices have also risen, with Newcastle's FOB price for Q5500 coal at 81.5 USD/ton, up 6.5% week-on-week [6][30] 2. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 84.4%, down 3.1 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 81.39%, down 5.3 percentage points [11][49] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 10% week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw an 18.8% decline [11][50] 3. Coal Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 1.854 million tons week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw a smaller increase of 0.235 million tons [50] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, while also considering companies with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and others [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, with specific recommendations for several companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the coal market post-Chinese New Year, driven by supply constraints and inventory depletion, with expectations of significant price increases [9][11]. - Domestic coal prices are stabilizing with slight fluctuations, while port coal prices are accelerating upward [12][11]. - The report anticipates that coal prices will return to a balanced supply-demand state in 2023-2024, with prices expected to fluctuate between 750-1000 RMB/ton [11][12]. Summary by Sections Company Earnings Forecast, Valuation, and Ratings - Recommended companies include: - Jinko Coal Industry (601001): EPS forecast of 1.68 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - Shanxi Coal International (600546): EPS forecast of 1.14 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699): EPS forecast of 0.82 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 17 [2]. - Huayang Co., Ltd. (600348): EPS forecast of 0.62 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 15 [2]. - Yancoal Energy (600188): EPS forecast of 1.44 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 12 [2]. - China Shenhua Energy (601088): EPS forecast of 2.95 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 14 [2]. - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225): EPS forecast of 2.31 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - China Coal Energy (601898): EPS forecast of 1.46 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - CGN Mining (1164.HK): EPS forecast of 0.04 HKD for 2024, with a PE of 108 [2]. - Xinji Energy (601918): EPS forecast of 0.92 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 8 [2]. - Huaibei Mining (600985): EPS forecast of 1.80 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 7 [2]. - Lanhua Sci-Tech (600123): EPS forecast of 0.49 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 13 [2]. Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 1.9% compared to the 0.4% increase in the CSI 300 index [20][17]. - The thermal coal sub-sector showed the highest increase of 3.0%, while the coking coal sub-sector experienced a decline of 3.9% [20][17]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that domestic coal supply is tightening due to the Chinese New Year holiday, with a significant decrease in port inventory levels compared to the previous year [11][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high spot market exposure and recommends focusing on companies with strong balance sheets and high cash flow [12][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2] Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant resurgence in U.S. coal demand, driven by the abandonment of decarbonization policies under the Trump administration, which is expected to lead to a 12.4% increase in coal consumption over the next decade [10][11] - The U.S. coal industry is at a historical turning point, with a projected increase in coal demand of 12-15 million tons by 2025 due to rising electricity needs driven by AI and extreme climate impacts [11][39] - The report emphasizes the importance of coal and natural gas as reliable baseload energy sources to address the electricity shortages exacerbated by AI-driven demand [10][31] Summary by Sections Investment Overview - The report highlights the critical role of clean coal resources in meeting rising electricity demand due to domestic manufacturing and AI data processing centers [9] U.S. Electricity Shortage and Energy Cycle - The U.S. is facing a dual challenge of both electricity load and quantity shortages, with coal and natural gas identified as key solutions [31] - The report predicts that by 2030, U.S. electricity demand will exceed 5.1 trillion kWh, with AI data centers contributing significantly to this increase [16][18] U.S. Coal Market Outlook - The report forecasts that 2025 will mark a turning point for the U.S. coal industry, with a projected increase in coal consumption and a shift towards coal-fired power generation [39][40] - It is expected that coal demand will peak around 2028, with an increase of 12-15 million short tons compared to 2024 [46] Supply Solutions for U.S. Coal - The report suggests that domestic production capacity is limited, and the most direct solution to meet rising demand is to convert approximately 50 million tons of coal exports to domestic sales [12] - The report anticipates that the U.S. may need to increase coal imports by 20-50 million tons to balance the global coal supply-demand equation [12][25] Beneficiary Companies - Recommended companies benefiting from this trend include Peabody Energy, Core Natural Resources, and Alliance Resource Partners, along with several leading Chinese coal companies [13][14]

Market Performance - The A-share market saw a collective increase in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.17%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.98% [1] - The North China 50 Index increased by 1.36% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 22,494.73 billion yuan, an increase of about 1,037.54 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Shanxi Sector Analysis - The Shanxi sector performed steadily, with an overall increase of 0.61% and a trading volume of 120.25 billion yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] - Among the 41 stocks in the Shanxi sector, 28 stocks rose, 12 fell, and 1 remained flat [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers included Jinlihua Electric and Huaxiang Co., both rising over 3%, while Dongjie Intelligent, Luhua Technology, and Huayang New Materials increased by over 2% [1] - Other stocks such as Beifang Copper Industry, Kexin Development, and Shitou Co. saw increases of over 1% [1] - Decliners included Jinkong Power and Lanyan Holdings, both dropping over 2%, while Shanxi Coking Coal and Qianyuan Pharmaceutical fell by more than 1% [1] - Several stocks, including Jinkong Coal Industry, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Jinbo Biological, experienced milder declines, with losses contained within 1% [1]