Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank(601077) 国泰君安·2024-10-30 22:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The performance of the company in Q3 2024 was slightly below expectations, with a slowdown in other non-interest income growth, which weakened its revenue support. However, net interest margins stabilized, and asset quality remained generally stable [3]. - The loan demand has been weak in 2024, compounded by multiple LPR cuts and a decline in existing mortgage rates. The net profit growth forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 3.28%/3.30%/5.07%, with corresponding EPS estimates of 0.99 (unchanged)/1.02 (-0.02)/1.08 (-0.04) yuan. The target price has been raised to 6.77 yuan, corresponding to a 0.61x PB for 2024, while maintaining the "Buy" rating [4][6]. - Q3 2024 saw a slight decline in revenue and profit, with a revenue growth rate of -2.7%, down 2.9 percentage points from Q2. Net interest income decreased by 4.8%, but the decline was mitigated by stabilized interest margins. The net income growth rate rebounded to -0.6% due to effective cost control measures [4][6]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects total revenue of 27,595 million yuan, a decrease of 1.3% from 2023. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 11,260 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.3% [5]. - The net interest margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.61%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points year-on-year, with a Q3 margin of 1.48%, showing a slight recovery from Q2 [4][5]. - The company’s asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan balance of 8.372 billion yuan and a non-performing loan ratio of 1.17% as of Q3 2024, both showing a decrease from Q2 [4][5].