Salubris(002294) 华创证券·2024-10-30 23:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 41.3 RMB, compared to the current price of 32.4 RMB [1] Core Views - The company's Q1-3 2024 revenue reached 3.001 billion RMB, a 22.18% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 510 million RMB, up 6.37% YoY [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was 958 million RMB, a 24.15% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 166 million RMB, up 17.01% YoY [1] - The company's performance driver has shifted to innovative drugs, with Xinlitan maintaining strong growth and Enadustat entering the early stage of medical insurance-driven volume growth [1] - The company's R&D pipeline is progressing steadily, with SAL0107 and Foglitin expected to accelerate volume growth if successfully included in the medical insurance list [1] Financial Performance - The company's 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 638 million RMB, 708 million RMB, and 879 million RMB, representing YoY growth of 10.0%, 10.9%, and 24.2% respectively [1] - The company's 2025 reasonable valuation is estimated at 46 billion RMB, with innovative drugs accounting for 39.6 billion RMB of the valuation [1] - The company's 2024E revenue is projected to be 4.019 billion RMB, a 19.4% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 638 million RMB, up 10.0% YoY [2] R&D Pipeline - SAL0108 and S086 for hypertension are expected to be approved in H2 2024-H1 2025 and participate in the 2025 medical insurance negotiation [1] - S086 for heart failure is currently in Phase III clinical enrollment, while SAL003 has completed Phase III patient enrollment and is expected to apply for production approval in H2 2025 [1] - JK07 is expected to read out Phase II data by the end of 2024, with SAL0114, SAL0112, and JK08 progressing in clinical trials [1] Valuation Metrics - The company's 2025E P/E ratio is 52x, with a P/B ratio of 5x and EV/EBITDA of 36x [2] - The company's 2025E ROE is projected to be 8.6%, with ROIC at 13.9% [5]