CMES(601872) 光大证券·2024-10-31 00:09Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's earnings performance is supported by the increase in dry bulk shipping profits, which offsets the volatility in oil shipping, while awaiting a recovery in the oil shipping market [2][8] - The company achieved total revenue of 19.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.369 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.35% [2][9] Revenue Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.48% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.16% [2] - The oil shipping business generated a net profit of 2.06 billion yuan in the first three quarters, down 12.2% year-on-year, with Q3 alone showing a net profit of 386 million yuan, down 27.6% year-on-year and 52.1% quarter-on-quarter [3][9] Business Segments - The dry bulk shipping segment saw a significant year-on-year profit increase of 106.7%, with Q3 net profit reaching 370 million yuan, up 75.3% year-on-year [5] - The roll-on/roll-off business achieved a net profit of 249 million yuan in the first three quarters, up 14.7% year-on-year, while the container shipping segment reported a net profit of 472 million yuan, down 25.9% year-on-year [6][7] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in oil shipping demand in 2025, driven by improving macroeconomic conditions and an expected increase in OPEC+ production [8] - The company is positioned as a leader in both oil and dry bulk shipping, with ongoing fleet upgrades and capacity expansion to capture market opportunities [8][9] Financial Forecasts - The report revises the company's profit forecasts downward, projecting net profits of 4.811 billion yuan, 6.025 billion yuan, and 6.701 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.59, 0.74, and 0.82 yuan per share [9][11]