CRHIC(600528) 国金证券·2024-10-31 00:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has seen a significant increase in contract liabilities and a continuous growth in overseas orders, indicating a positive long-term revenue outlook [2][3]. - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenues of 65.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.21%, with a net profit of 3.84 billion yuan, down 20.88% year-on-year [2]. - The company achieved new orders of 373.28 billion yuan from January to September 2024, with notable growth in specialized engineering machinery and services [3]. - The railway investment in China is on the rise, supported by government policies for equipment updates, which is expected to benefit the company's transportation equipment business [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenues of 65.61 billion yuan, down 4.21% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.84 billion yuan, down 20.88% year-on-year [2]. - As of Q3 2024, the company's contract liabilities reached a record high of 90.17 billion yuan, an increase of 6.94 billion yuan from the previous quarter [2]. Order Growth - From January to September 2024, the company secured new orders totaling 373.28 billion yuan, with specific segments showing varied performance: tunnel construction equipment down 23.25%, specialized engineering machinery up 34.1%, and steel structure manufacturing up 3.87% [3]. - The company continues to lead in the global market for shield machines, with overseas new orders amounting to 2.204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.72% [3]. Market Outlook - The report highlights a positive outlook for the company's long-term revenue growth due to increasing railway investments, which are projected to reach 764.5 billion yuan in 2023, a 7.5% year-on-year increase, and a 10.3% increase in the first nine months of 2024 [3]. - The government's support for large-scale equipment updates is expected to accelerate demand for the company's transportation equipment, particularly in switch manufacturing [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 314.17 billion yuan, 330.67 billion yuan, and 347.47 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 18.26 billion yuan, 19.55 billion yuan, and 21.03 billion yuan [4].