HCNC(300161) 东吴证券·2024-10-31 03:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a Q3 revenue growth of 17% year-on-year, with the CNC system business continuing to grow rapidly [1] - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.107 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.54% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of -67 million yuan [2] - The company has a strong order backlog, with contract liabilities at 327 million yuan, up 70.91% from the end of 2023, indicating potential future revenue recognition [4] - The company is focusing on R&D to achieve domestic substitution of CNC systems, with significant patent achievements in the first half of 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 478 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.76%, and a net profit of 39 million yuan, a significant increase of 2546.98% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 34.63%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s net profit margin for the first three quarters was 7.90%, a decrease of 4.48 percentage points year-on-year [3] Revenue Breakdown - In the first three quarters of 2024, revenue from the CNC system and machine tool sector was 595 million yuan, up 5.11% year-on-year, while revenue from industrial robots and smart production lines fell by 34.27% [2] - The special equipment sector saw a revenue increase of 49.28% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in that area [2] R&D and Future Prospects - The company is committed to addressing the "bottleneck" issues in CNC systems through ongoing high-level R&D investments, with 78 patents granted in the first half of 2024 [4] - The company aims to promote domestic CNC system development and replacement, which is expected to yield positive results in the future [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards due to a slowdown in order fulfillment, with expected net profits of 380 million yuan, 1.01 billion yuan, and 1.82 billion yuan respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to dynamic P/E ratios of 144, 55, and 30 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]