First(603806) 国金证券·2024-10-31 03:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 15.2 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.258 billion RMB, down 12% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 4.4 billion RMB, reflecting a 27% decline year-on-year and a 19% decline quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 330 million RMB, down 40% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Despite the challenging environment, the company maintained positive profitability, showcasing its competitive advantages in cost control, product structure, and overseas production capacity, as it continued to gain market share in a declining market [2][3] - The company has a strong cash flow position, with net cash flow from operating activities increasing to 1.88 billion RMB in Q3, demonstrating effective management practices [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 19.724 billion RMB, a decrease of 12.68% from 2023, with a recovery expected in 2025 and 2026 [5] - Net profit for 2024 is estimated at 1.737 billion RMB, with a growth forecast of 44.11% in 2025 and 27.39% in 2026 [5] - The diluted earnings per share for 2024 is projected to be 0.666 RMB, with an increase to 0.959 RMB in 2025 and 1.222 RMB in 2026 [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a leading position in the encapsulation solutions market, providing cost-effective options for various battery technologies, including TOPCon, HJT, and others [3] - The overseas production capacity in Thailand and Vietnam is operational, with plans for further expansion, which will enhance the company's ability to meet international demand [3] Cash Flow and Management - The company has improved its operating cash flow through optimized procurement and receivables management, with Q3 cash flow net increasing by 1.88 billion RMB [3] - The reversal of credit impairment losses in Q3 contributed positively to the overall performance [3] Valuation and Future Outlook - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 19 and 15 times, respectively, indicating a solid competitive position and growth potential in the electronic materials sector [3]