Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the company with a target price of 58.74 CNY [2][4] Core Views - The company's operating data improved better than market expectations, with Q3 2024 revenue reaching 4.103 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.07%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 160 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 46.25% [1] - Despite industry challenges and high raw material costs, the company's Q3 2024 revenue showed steady growth, with gross margin remaining above 20% and slightly increasing quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's business structure is optimizing, with the 2C model and higher-margin insecticide and fungicide products contributing to improved gross margins [1] - The company is expected to release growth momentum through continued investment in 2C business and expansion into high-barrier markets like the EU and North America [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 9.785 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.86%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 342 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 52.67% [1] - The company's 2C revenue ratio increased from 32.88% in the first three quarters of 2023 to 37.73% in the same period of 2024, with a 2C gross margin of 29.37%, significantly higher than the 2B gross margin of 14.91% [1] - The revenue share of insecticides and fungicides reached 25.46% in the first three quarters of 2024, with a gross margin approximately 6% higher than herbicides [1] Future Outlook - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 1.78, 3.63, and 4.58 CNY, respectively, due to industry uncertainties and exchange rate fluctuations [2] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve further as high-cost inventory is gradually digested, and the 2C business model matures, leading to higher net profit margins [1] - Expansion into the EU and North American markets is expected to reduce reliance on the Latin American market, improving the company's financial statements [1] Financial Ratios and Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 12.391 billion CNY in 2024 to 16.401 billion CNY in 2026, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing from 496 million CNY in 2024 to 1.277 billion CNY in 2026 [3] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable, ranging from 20.7% in 2024 to 21.6% in 2026, while net margin is projected to improve from 4.0% in 2024 to 7.8% in 2026 [3] - ROE is forecasted to increase from 7.5% in 2024 to 15.8% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability and operational efficiency [3]
润丰股份：农化行业震荡磨底，公司积蓄成长动能