塔牌集团（002233）：2024年三季报点评：收入降幅略有收窄，盈利仍有修复预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][19]. Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue decline has narrowed, and there is an expectation for profit recovery. For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.81%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 381 million yuan, down 37.98% year-on-year. The Q3 single-quarter revenue was 954 million yuan, down 23.39% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20.34% year-on-year to 155 million yuan [1][3][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's cement sales volume for the first nine months was 10.61 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%. In Q3, the sales volume was 3.658 million tons, down 14.3% year-on-year but up 4.5% quarter-on-quarter. The average revenue per ton of cement for the first nine months was 276.2 yuan, down 54.0 yuan year-on-year, while the Q3 average was 260.8 yuan, down 31.1 yuan year-on-year [2][3][9]. Cost and Expenses - The company reported a period expense ratio of 10.64% for the first nine months, an increase of 2.85 percentage points year-on-year. The Q3 single-quarter expense ratio was 11.12%, up 2.42 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.94 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The increase in expense ratio was mainly due to the decline in revenue [3][12]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first nine months was 204 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 74.9%. The Q3 single-quarter cash flow was 171 million yuan, down 40.5% year-on-year. The company's asset-liability ratio was 9.89% at the end of September, a decrease of 0.52 percentage points from the end of June [3][12][15]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policies that promote marginal demand improvement and continued staggered production on the supply side, which may lead to a positive increase in cement prices. The company has set a cash dividend policy of no less than 0.45 yuan per share, corresponding to a current dividend yield of approximately 5.6% [3][15].