YUNDA Corp.(002120) 华泰证券·2024-10-31 07:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2][5]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit excluding non-recurring items, driven by continuous improvement in express delivery business costs. However, the net profit was below expectations due to asset impairment losses [1]. - The express delivery industry is experiencing a slowdown in volume growth, with a year-on-year increase of 20.0% in Q3 2024, down from 25.2% in Q1 and 21.3% in Q2. The average price per item has decreased by 6.5% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing due to price increases in certain regions [2]. - The company's gross margin for Q3 2024 was 8.5%, a slight year-on-year decrease, but the decline is narrowing compared to previous quarters. The company has room for cost reduction and capacity utilization is expected to improve [2][12]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 12.26 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.84%, and a net profit of 367 million RMB, up 24.3% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 340 million RMB, reflecting an 88.51% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 were 35.51 billion RMB and 1.41 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 8.14% and 20.8% [1]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 2.1 billion RMB, 2.56 billion RMB, and 3.0 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 29.3%, 21.9%, and 17.3% [2][12]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company is set at 12.18 RMB, with a current closing price of 8.41 RMB, indicating potential upside [6]. - The report provides a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio forecast of 13.8x for 2025, with an expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.88 RMB [2][12].