AECC AP(600893) 民生证券·2024-10-31 10:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its industry position and growth potential [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.956 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 1.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 726 million yuan, down 29.6% year-over-year. The decline in net profit is attributed to reduced investment income, increased financial expenses, and higher sales costs [2]. - The company's profitability remains stable despite the challenges, with a gross margin of 12.0% and a net margin of 3.1% for the first three quarters of 2024. The gross margin improved to 13.9% in Q3 2024, while the net margin decreased to 2.1% [2]. - The company has reached historical highs in accounts receivable and inventory, with accounts receivable at 33.4 billion yuan and inventory at 40.2 billion yuan as of Q3 2024. The net cash flow from operating activities was -17.276 billion yuan, reflecting challenges in cash collection and increased procurement [2][3]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the aviation engine sector, benefiting from high industry demand and aiming to develop high-quality, energy-efficient products. The revenue grew from 28.6 billion yuan in 2020 to 43.7 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% [2][3]. - Future profit projections estimate net profits of 1.51 billion yuan, 1.895 billion yuan, and 2.366 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 77x, 61x, and 49x [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 25.956 billion yuan, with a net profit of 726 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 29.6% [2]. - The Q3 2024 revenue was 7.409 billion yuan, down 13.2% year-over-year, with a net profit of 131 million yuan, a decrease of 57.0% [2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 12.0%, while the net margin was 3.1%, with Q3 margins showing a gross margin of 13.9% and a net margin of 2.1% [2]. Balance Sheet Highlights - As of Q3 2024, accounts receivable reached 33.4 billion yuan, and inventory was at 40.2 billion yuan, both historical highs since 2004 [2][3]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 99.796 billion yuan in 2023 to 123.228 billion yuan by 2026 [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the high demand in the aviation engine sector, with a focus on developing a full range of aviation engines [2]. - The projected net profits for 2024 to 2026 indicate a positive growth trajectory, with significant increases expected in profitability metrics [3][5].