塔牌集团：2024年三季报点评：收入降幅略有收窄，盈利仍有修复预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][3][10] Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue decline has narrowed, and there is an expectation for profit recovery. For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.93 billion yuan, down 28.81% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 381 million yuan, down 37.98% year-on-year [1][4] - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policies that promote marginal demand improvement, alongside continued staggered production in the supply side, which may lead to a positive increase in cement prices [1][10] - The company has a strong position in the East Guangdong cement market, with advantages in geographical location, resource layout, cost scale, and marketing channels [1][10] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a single-quarter revenue of 954 million yuan, down 23.39% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20.34% year-on-year to 155 million yuan [1][4] - The cement sales volume for the first nine months was 10.61 million tons, down 14.9% year-on-year, with Q3 sales of 3.658 million tons, down 14.3% year-on-year but up 4.5% quarter-on-quarter [1][4] - The average revenue per ton of cement for the first nine months was 276.2 yuan, down 54.0 yuan year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 212.3 yuan, down 30.1 yuan year-on-year [1][4] Cash Flow and Expenses - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 204 million yuan for the first nine months, down 74.9% year-on-year, with Q3 cash flow of 171 million yuan, down 40.5% year-on-year [1][7] - The expense ratio for the first nine months was 10.64%, up 2.85 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 expense ratio at 11.12%, up 2.42 percentage points year-on-year [1][7] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 0.44, 0.52, and 0.60 yuan per share, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.8, 13.4, and 11.6 [1][10][11]