鱼跃医疗：Q3收入增速转正，血糖业务有望持续高增长

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.72 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a 2.2% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 410 million yuan, down 41.0% [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the total revenue was 6.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.5%, with a net profit of 1.53 billion yuan, down 30.1% [1]. - The company is increasing its marketing efforts to enhance channel expansion and brand strength, with Q3 sales expenses rising significantly to support new product launches [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, while the net profit margin fell to 23.9%, down 17.5 percentage points due to increased expenses and a high base from land asset disposals in the previous year [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects revenues of 8.37 billion yuan, 9.60 billion yuan, and 11.29 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits projected at 2.00 billion yuan, 2.17 billion yuan, and 2.63 billion yuan for the same years [2][3]. - The diabetes business is anticipated to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50% from 2024 to 2026, driven by the development of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) products [7]. Business Segment Performance - The respiratory oxygen segment is expected to see a revenue decline of 5% in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 13% in 2025 and 2026 [7]. - The blood glucose monitoring segment is projected to achieve a revenue of 1.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 63% [8]. - The infection control segment is expected to maintain stable revenues of 800 million yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 50% [8]. Financial Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 2.39 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14 [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.59% in 2024, decreasing from 19.94% in 2023 [3].