3PEAK(688536) 国信证券·2024-10-31 14:47Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue increased by 11% quarter-over-quarter, with gross margin improving both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter [1] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 grew by 4% year-over-year, driven by demand in automotive, new energy, server, and optical module markets, as well as the ramp-up of new signal chain and power management chip products [1] - The acquisition of Chuangxin Micro has been completed, making it a wholly-owned subsidiary, which is expected to enhance the company's product performance and technical service capabilities in key markets such as communications, industrial, new energy, automotive electronics, and consumer electronics [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 848 million (YoY +4.31%), with signal chain chip revenue at RMB 710 million (YoY +9.37%) and power management chip revenue at RMB 138 million (YoY -13.91%) [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB -99 million (YoY -706%), with adjusted net profit at RMB -169 million (YoY -243%) [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 342 million (YoY +69.8%, QoQ +11.4%), with signal chain chip revenue at RMB 291 million (YoY +73.25%) and power management chip revenue at RMB 50 million (YoY +51.10%) [1] - Gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 49.46%, down 4.1 percentage points year-over-year, but Q3 2024 gross margin improved to 51.60%, up 1.6 percentage points year-over-year and 3.3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1] Expense Analysis - R&D expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 4.3% year-over-year to RMB 394 million, with an R&D expense ratio of 46.43% [1] - Management expense ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points year-over-year to 9.48%, while the sales expense ratio increased by 2.8 percentage points to 9.75% [1] - The financial expense ratio increased by 1.0 percentage points year-over-year to -1.12% [1] - In Q3 2024, the combined four expense ratios decreased by 6.7 percentage points year-over-year and 4.0 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 107 million, RMB 215 million, and RMB 385 million in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 147x, 73x, and 41x as of October 29, 2024 [1] - The company plans to focus on synergistic business opportunities, complementary market and customer resources, and product R&D and closed-loop capabilities in future industry acquisitions [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1,272 million in 2024E to RMB 2,271 million in 2026E, with year-over-year growth rates of 16.3%, 41.1%, and 26.5% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from RMB 107 million in 2024E to RMB 385 million in 2026E, with year-over-year growth rates of 407.9%, 100.7%, and 79.2% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from RMB 0.81 in 2024E to RMB 2.90 in 2026E [2] Key Financial Ratios - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 1.9% in 2024E to 6.1% in 2026E [2] - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 146.8x in 2024E to 40.8x in 2026E [2] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is forecasted to improve from -510.4x in 2024E to 47.5x in 2026E [2]