Keda Group(600499) 民生证券·2024-10-31 14:57Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 8.42 yuan [6]. Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth driven by its machinery and overseas building materials segments, with a revenue increase of 21.85% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024 [1]. - Despite the revenue growth, the net profit has significantly decreased by 65.19% year-on-year, indicating challenges in profitability due to exchange rate fluctuations and other factors [1]. - The company is well-positioned in the ceramic machinery sector, with a focus on global and diversified development, and is actively expanding its presence in Africa and the Americas [2][3]. - The lithium battery segment continues to contribute positively to cash flow, although profits have been impacted by lithium price fluctuations and cost adjustments [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.564 billion yuan, up 21.85% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 703 million yuan, down 65.19% [1]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 26.90%, a decrease of 4.41 percentage points year-on-year, with a net margin of 9.77% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.070 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.57%, but the net profit was 248 million yuan, down 66.93% [1]. Business Segments - The ceramic machinery segment has a significant overseas order ratio of 60%, with ongoing projects in Turkey and new bases in Foshan, China [2]. - The overseas building materials segment has seen stable growth, with production lines established in six African countries and ongoing projects in the Americas [3]. - The lithium segment, where the company holds a 43.58% stake in Blue Lithium Industry, continues to generate positive cash flow despite a decrease in profit contributions due to market conditions [4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a solid position in the ceramic machinery market and continue to explore opportunities in the building materials sector in Africa and the Americas [4]. - Forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are projected to be 1.08 billion, 1.33 billion, and 1.55 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 12, and 10 times [4].