Keda Group(600499) 东吴证券·2024-10-31 15:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.56 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 700 million yuan, down 65.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company is accelerating its transformation into a global ceramic production service provider, with overseas business accounting for over 60% of total revenue in Q1-Q3 2024 [1]. - The gross margin improved to 29.2% in Q3 2024, an increase of 4.6 percentage points from Q2, driven by a higher proportion of consumables and general-purpose equipment sales [1]. - The company has initiated a share repurchase plan, aiming to buy back 20-30 million shares within 12 months, reflecting confidence in its long-term development [1]. - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.28 billion, 1.67 billion, and 2.13 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 12.3, 9.4, and 7.4 times based on the closing price on October 30 [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.07 billion yuan, up 34.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 250 million yuan, down 66.9% year-on-year [1]. - The financial expense ratio increased due to foreign exchange losses, impacting the net cash flow from operating activities, which was -230 million yuan in Q3 2024, a decrease of 610 million yuan year-on-year [1]. Business Strategy - The company is advancing its "Big Building Materials" strategy, with ongoing projects in Tanzania and Peru, and construction in Ivory Coast and Honduras, which are expected to drive long-term growth [1]. - The company continues to enhance its product offerings in the ceramic machinery sector, focusing on consumables and general-purpose equipment to boost revenue growth [1]. Market Outlook - The overseas building materials business is expected to benefit from population growth and urbanization in Africa, providing a growth impetus for the company's performance [1]. - Recent price improvements in African tile products are anticipated to support a recovery in performance in the second half of the year [1].