CGN POWER(003816) 华创证券·2024-10-31 22:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) with a target price of 4.46 CNY, compared to the current price of 4.04 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company demonstrates sufficient long-term growth potential and stable operational performance, with a revenue of 22.893 billion CNY in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.31%. For the first three quarters of 2024, the total revenue reached 62.27 billion CNY, up 4.06% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 2.874 billion CNY, a 4.87% increase year-on-year, while the net profit for the first three quarters was 9.984 billion CNY, growing by 2.93% year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Operational Performance - The total installed capacity of the company reached 31.756 GW in the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. - The total power generation from the nuclear units managed by the company was approximately 178.069 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.93%. The total grid-connected power was about 166.890 billion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 4.97% [3]. - The Taishan unit showed significant improvement, achieving power generation and grid-connected power of 17.308 billion kWh and 16.171 billion kWh respectively, marking increases of 52.81% and 52.93% year-on-year [3]. Maintenance and Projects - The company has steadily progressed in its maintenance schedule, completing 10 annual refueling outages and 4 ten-year overhauls in the first three quarters of 2024. For Q4, it plans to initiate 3 additional annual refueling outages [3]. - The company has received approval for 6 new nuclear units, enhancing its future growth prospects. Notably, construction of the Ningde Unit 5 commenced in July 2024, and several other units have received government approval [3]. Financial Forecast - The report adjusts profit expectations, forecasting net profits of approximately 11.8 billion CNY, 12.5 billion CNY, and 13.5 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 9.8%, 6.2%, and 7.8% [3]. - The company is projected to achieve a price-to-earnings ratio of 18x by 2025, corresponding to a market capitalization of 225.1 billion CNY [3].