UTour (002707) 东吴证券·2024-11-01 00:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance aligns with forecasts, with international passenger traffic continuing to recover [1] - Q3 revenue reached 55% of 2019 levels, with a significant year-over-year increase in both revenue and net profit [2] - The company's profitability is expected to be supported by the National Day holiday and off-peak travel products in Q4 [3] - As a leading domestic outbound travel operator, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery of the outbound travel market [4] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue was 4,723 million yuan, up 130% year-over-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 123 million yuan, up 774% year-over-year [2] - Q3 2024 revenue was 2,106 million yuan, up 67% year-over-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 52 million yuan, up 6% year-over-year [2] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 13.0%, up 1.2 percentage points year-over-year, while net margin was 2.5%, down 1.4 percentage points year-over-year [2] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 6,818.53 million yuan in 2024E to 12,467.32 million yuan in 2026E, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing from 165.74 million yuan in 2024E to 289.34 million yuan in 2026E [1] Market and Industry Trends - International passenger traffic at major airports in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou has shown significant recovery compared to 2019 levels [3] - The outbound travel market is expected to accelerate its recovery as international flights and destination visas gradually return to normal [3] - The company's "Huiwan Season" product series, targeting travel from mid-October 2024 to January 2025, has achieved nearly 80% sales as of October 14, 2024 [3] Valuation and Forecasts - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 46.43 in 2024E to 26.59 in 2026E [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 170 million yuan, 230 million yuan, and 290 million yuan, respectively [4] - The company's EPS is projected to increase from 0.17 yuan in 2024E to 0.29 yuan in 2026E [1] Financial Metrics - The company's total assets are expected to grow from 2,788 million yuan in 2024E to 3,631 million yuan in 2026E [10] - Net profit margin attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 2.43% in 2024E to 2.32% in 2026E [10] - ROE (diluted) is expected to rise from 17.93% in 2024E to 20.07% in 2026E [11]