GUIDE INFRARED(002414) 光大证券·2024-11-01 00:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing strong performance potential in both defense and civilian applications of infrared thermal imaging technology [1] Core Views - The company's revenue shows a clear upward trend, with Q1-Q3 2024 revenue reaching 1.812 billion yuan, a 12.38% year-on-year increase [1] - Despite a significant decline in net profit (-82.42% YoY), the company's contract liabilities have surged by 76.83% to 541 million yuan, indicating strong future performance potential [1] - The company has made significant breakthroughs in both military and civilian sectors, securing multiple major contracts and project approvals [1] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 gross margin and net margin stood at 52.57% and 2.77% respectively, showing a decline of 2.59pcts and 15.01pcts year-on-year [1] - Operating expenses have increased, with R&D expense ratio reaching 29.03%, up 6.17pcts year-on-year [1] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 0.05, 0.12, and 0.19 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 176x, 71x, and 44x [1] Military Sector Developments - Secured a 334 million yuan contract for complete equipment system export products in March 2024 [1] - Won a major domestic equipment system project in August 2024, marking the first time a private enterprise has won such a bid [1] - Signed a 199 million yuan contract for complete equipment system products with another military branch [1] Civilian Sector Progress - The company's subsidiary, Xuanyuan Zhijia, has secured multiple project approvals in the commercial vehicle sector, including partnerships with Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck and Baidu New Trunk Line [1] - Expanded into the passenger vehicle market with approvals from Geely Auto, Dongfeng Mengshi, and GAC Aion [1] - Won a 170 million yuan bid for the Hubei Natural Disaster Emergency Capacity Improvement Project in August 2024 [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit, with forecasts of 203 million yuan (2024), 503 million yuan (2025), and 802 million yuan (2026) [1] - Strong performance elasticity is anticipated due to abundant ongoing projects and continued expansion in infrared thermal imaging applications [1] Historical Performance - Revenue growth has shown a clear recovery trend, with 2024 Q1-Q3 growth rates of 5.57%, 11.11%, and 19.20% respectively [1] - The company's ROE (diluted) is expected to improve significantly, from 2.92% in 2024 to 10.49% in 2026 [2] Valuation Metrics - Current P/E ratios stand at 176x (2024), 71x (2025), and 44x (2026) [1] - P/B ratios are projected to decrease from 5.1 in 2024 to 4.7 in 2026 [2]