SAIC MOTOR(600104) Minsheng Securities·2024-11-01 02:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 430.48 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.91 billion yuan, down 39.5% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, total revenue was 145.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 25.9%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 280 million yuan, down 93.5% year-on-year and 92.9% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company is accelerating its transition to new energy vehicles, with a focus on optimizing its production and sales structure [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 9.6%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year and 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The increase was attributed to cost reductions in the supply chain [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) for vehicles in Q3 2024 was 121,000 yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year and 24.3% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a higher proportion of premium new energy products [1][5]. Sales and Production - The company sold 823,000 vehicles in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 35.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17.2%. The revenue growth outpaced sales growth due to improved product structure [1]. - The company expects a rebound in vehicle production and sales as it enters the traditional peak sales season in Q4, with significant order growth for its new models [1]. Investment Outlook - The report adjusts the revenue forecast for 2024-2026 to 676.9 billion, 707.4 billion, and 747.0 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 10.44 billion, 12.90 billion, and 14.63 billion yuan, respectively [1][2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.90, 1.11, and 1.26 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15, 12, and 10 times based on the closing price of 12.87 yuan per share on October 31, 2024 [1][2].