Guangzhou Restaurant(603043) 华福证券·2024-11-01 03:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.103 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.86%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.87% to 448 million yuan [1]. - The "Little Year" mooncake business showed resilience, with a 1.5% increase in sales volume compared to the previous year, despite the current year being a traditional "Little Year" for the mooncake industry [1]. - The company is experiencing steady growth in its restaurant business, benefiting from ongoing store expansions [1]. - Direct sales in the food manufacturing segment are gaining traction, with a year-on-year increase of 4.48% in direct sales revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 [1]. - The overall gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 33.14%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 10.92%, down 1.76 percentage points [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenues of 29.40 billion yuan from food manufacturing, 10.89 billion yuan from restaurant services, and 0.42 billion yuan from other sales, with respective year-on-year growth rates of +2.70%, +15.51%, and -3.47% [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 5.11 billion yuan, 5.84 billion yuan, and 6.83 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 18, 16, and 13 times [1][2]. Business Segments - The food manufacturing business generated 14.41 billion yuan from mooncake products, 7.72 billion yuan from frozen foods, and 7.27 billion yuan from other products in Q1-Q3 2024, with mooncake revenue showing a slight increase of 0.24% year-on-year [1]. - The restaurant service segment saw a significant year-on-year growth of 15.51%, indicating strong demand and effective channel expansion [1]. Market Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its distribution network, with a net increase of 29 distributors in provinces outside Guangdong, indicating initial success in its provincial expansion strategy [1]. - The direct sales channel is showing a positive trend, with a year-on-year growth of 5.30% in Q3 2024, while the distribution channel experienced a decline of 3.53% [1]. Profitability Metrics - The report highlights a slight decline in profitability metrics, with the overall gross margin decreasing to 33.14% and net profit margin to 10.92% for Q1-Q3 2024 [1]. - The company has managed to reduce its sales, management, and research expenses as a percentage of revenue, reflecting improved operational efficiency [1].