ECOVACS(603486) 中泰证券·2024-11-01 03:43Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Ecovacs (603486 SH) [1] Core Views - Domestic sales remain weak in Q3 2024 with Ecovacs brand revenue down 13% YoY (domestic -25% overseas 0%) while Tineco brand revenue grew 12% YoY (domestic +20% overseas +6%) [1] - Q3 2024 gross margin at 47% (+1pct YoY -4pct QoQ) net margin at 0 2% [1] - Profitability weakened QoQ in Q3 2024 due to front-loaded marketing expenses for Double 11 and overseas inventory clearance [1] - Domestic market outlook depends on product pricing and potential subsidy extension which could restart penetration growth [1] - Overseas competition intensifying with new entrants like Yunji and Dreame increasing marketing spend [1] Financial Performance Income Statement - 2024E revenue forecast at 16 38 billion yuan (+6% YoY) with net profit of 1 216 billion yuan (+99% YoY) [1] - 2025E revenue forecast at 18 504 billion yuan (+13% YoY) with net profit of 1 521 billion yuan (+25% YoY) [1] - 2026E revenue forecast at 20 954 billion yuan (+13% YoY) with net profit of 1 806 billion yuan (+19% YoY) [1] - 2024E gross margin expected at 50 7% with net margin at 7 4% [2] Balance Sheet - 2024E total assets forecast at 12 99 billion yuan [2] - 2024E total liabilities forecast at 5 932 billion yuan with debt-to-equity ratio of 19 6% [2] - 2024E current ratio expected at 2 1 with quick ratio at 1 5 [2] Cash Flow - 2024E operating cash flow forecast at 1 358 billion yuan [2] - 2024E capital expenditure forecast at -592 million yuan [2] Valuation - 2024E P/E at 24 5x P/B at 4 2x [1] - 2024E EV/EBITDA at 84x [2] Industry Analysis - Domestic robotic vacuum cleaner market penetration growth stalled awaiting potential subsidy extension [1] - Overseas market competition intensifying with Chinese brands expanding globally [1] - Industry innovation currently in a plateau phase providing opportunities for latecomers [1]