HEILAN HOME(600398) 国泰君安·2024-11-01 04:11Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4] Core Views - Q3 performance was below expectations due to weak terminal sales and rigid costs impacting earnings, but there is potential for marginal improvement as the cold winter sales season approaches [3][4] - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.48, 0.56, and 0.62 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates [3] - The target price remains at 7.25 CNY, based on a 15x PE ratio for 2024, which aligns with industry averages [3][4] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 18,562 million CNY, with a projected increase to 21,528 million CNY in 2023, followed by a decrease to 20,845 million CNY in 2024 [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 2,155 million CNY in 2022, expected to rise to 2,952 million CNY in 2023, then decrease to 2,321 million CNY in 2024 [2] - The company’s net profit margin is projected to be 11.1% in 2023, with a slight decrease to 11.2% in 2024 [9] Sales Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was 15.26 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, with a significant drop in Q3 revenue by 11.0% year-on-year [3] - Online sales outperformed offline sales, with online revenue increasing by 44.7% while offline sales decreased by 11.8% [3] - The company’s main brand, Hai Lan Zhi Jia, saw a revenue decline of 5.0% year-on-year [3] Inventory and Future Outlook - As of Q3, inventory stood at 12.33 billion CNY, an increase of 4.3 billion CNY year-on-year, partly due to the consolidation of the Sporz business [3] - The company anticipates improved inventory turnover and sales performance as the winter season approaches, with plans to expand its main brand and strengthen online sales channels [3]