KLM(600686) 东吴证券·2024-11-01 06:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was slightly below expectations, with total revenue of 4.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% quarter-on-quarter and 19.8% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5% but a significant quarter-on-quarter decline of 79.5% [2] - Despite the decline in sales volume, the revenue growth outpaced sales, driven by strong export performance. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q3 2024 was 464,000 yuan, an increase of 2.9% quarter-on-quarter and 4.8% year-on-year, attributed to an optimized sales structure [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the new energy bus and battery replacement subsidy policies, which are anticipated to accelerate demand in Q4 2024 [3] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts total revenue for 2024-2026 to be 21 billion, 24 billion, and 27 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 13%, and 13% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is revised down to 1.8 billion, 4.4 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 134%, 153%, and 45% [3] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 54, 21, and 15 times, respectively [3]