STO(002468) 国信证券·2024-11-01 06:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][4][6] Core Views - The company has shown impressive performance in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 33.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 639 million yuan, up 204.8% [4][6] - The company's market share has rapidly increased to 13.5%, with a year-on-year business volume growth of 27.9% [4][6] - The company is benefiting from an active pricing strategy, with the average express delivery price decreasing by 5.2% year-on-year to approximately 2.01 yuan per package [4][6] - The company is in the third year of its "Three-Year 10 Billion Capacity Enhancement Plan," which is expected to continue optimizing its network and increasing throughput capacity [4][6] Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 48.95 billion yuan, 55.85 billion yuan, and 62.27 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.6%, 14.1%, and 11.5% [2][7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 950 million yuan, 1.28 billion yuan, and 1.55 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 178.7%, 35%, and 21% [2][7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.62 yuan, 0.84 yuan, and 1.01 yuan, respectively [2][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 and 2025 is estimated to be 17.5x and 13.0x, respectively [2][7]