CPIC(601601) 东吴证券·2024-11-01 07:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) [1] Core Views - CPIC's 9M24 net profit attributable to parent company reached RMB 38.31 billion, up 65.5% YoY, driven by capital market gains [1] - The company's investment spread surged 188.7% YoY, becoming the core driver of the 65.5% net profit growth [1] - CPIC's life insurance business achieved 9 consecutive quarters of YoY NBV growth, with 9M24 NBV reaching RMB 14.238 billion, up 37.9% YoY [1] - The property insurance business maintained stable underwriting profit, with 9M24 premium income growing 7.7% YoY [1] Financial Performance - 9M24 ROE reached 14.6%, up 4.7 percentage points YoY [1] - Net investment yield was 2.9% (down 0.1 pct YoY) while total investment yield was 4.7% (up 2.3 pct YoY) [1] - Fair value changes turned positive to RMB 42.103 billion in 9M24 from negative RMB 1.917 billion in 9M23 [1] - Insurance service revenue grew 2.3% YoY, with life insurance down 2.5% and property insurance up 4.4% [1] Business Segments Life Insurance - NBV margin improved 6.2 pct YoY to 20.1% [1] - Individual agent channel new premium grew 16.3% YoY, contributing 47.9% of total new premium [1] - Core manpower increased 2.4% YoY to 58,000, with per capita first-year premium up 15.0% [1] Property Insurance - 9M24 premium income reached RMB 159.819 billion, up 7.7% YoY [1] - Auto insurance grew 3.3% while non-auto insurance grew 12.2% [1] - Combined ratio remained stable at 98.7%, same as last year [1] Valuation and Forecast - 2024-2026 net profit forecast maintained at RMB 42.8, 38.0, and 43.3 billion respectively [1] - 2024E P/EV ratio is 0.60x [1] - 2024E EVPS is RMB 62.05 [1] Market Data - Current share price: RMB 37.19 [3] - 52-week range: RMB 21.27-43.01 [3] - Market cap: RMB 357.78 billion [3] - P/B ratio: 1.31x [3]