COSCO SHIPPING Energy(600026) 光大证券·2024-11-01 07:45Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in Q3 performance due to pressure on oil shipping rates, but the LNG business is expected to accelerate its development [2][4] - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in oil shipping demand as macroeconomic conditions improve and OPEC+ enters a production increase cycle in 2025 [8] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 17.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.415 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.05% [3] - In Q3 2024 alone, the company reported revenue of 5.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.76%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.50%, with a net profit of 808 million yuan, down 10.93% year-on-year and down 41.03% quarter-on-quarter [3] Business Segments - The foreign trade oil transportation business generated a gross profit of 3.15 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a decrease of 9.8% year-on-year, with Q3 gross profit at 620 million yuan, down 13.3% year-on-year and down 52.8% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The average TCE for the TD3C route was 47,115 per day, up 44.9% year-on-year [4] LNG Business Development - The company is actively introducing new clean energy capacity and accelerating the installation of desulfurization towers, with 8 new ship orders in hand [6] - As of June 30, 2024, the company has invested in 85 LNG vessels, with 45 in operation and 40 under construction, contributing a net profit of 680 million yuan from LNG transportation, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [7] Future Outlook - The company expects a recovery in oil shipping demand due to a mismatch between supply and demand, with a projected increase in oil shipping rates as the industry recovers [8] - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 4.587 billion yuan, 5.553 billion yuan, and 6.766 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.96, 1.16, and 1.42 yuan per share [9]