GUOXIN MICRO(002049) 民生证券·2024-11-01 10:52Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to weaker-than-expected recovery in demand for special integrated circuits, leading to declines in both revenue and net profit [2] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 4.263 billion, down 24.56% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 1.01 billion, down 50.27% YoY [2] - The company is actively expanding its market and making progress in new product development, particularly in FPGA, special memory, and network interface chips [2] - The report revises down the company's net profit forecasts for 2024/2025/2026 to RMB 1.298/1.749/2.292 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 42/31/24x [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 5.95 billion, a 21.36% decline YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 1.298 billion, down 48.7% YoY [3][6] - Gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 55.97%, down from 61.19% in 2023A [6] - ROE for 2024E is forecasted at 10.49%, a significant drop from 21.72% in 2023A [6] - The company's EPS for 2024E is projected at RMB 1.53, down from RMB 2.98 in 2023A [7] Product Development and Market Expansion - The company's FPGA products maintain a leading position in the industry, with new high-performance products gaining traction and securing orders from key customers [2] - In the special memory sector, the company continues to lead with the most comprehensive product series and advanced technology, with new products already being supplied to customers [2] - Progress in network and interface chips, system-level chips, RFSoC, and general MCU products is positive, with orders secured for multiple new products [2] - The company has completed the design and tape-out of several analog products, including high-performance RF clocks, multi-channel switching power supplies, and high-performance operational amplifiers [2] Valuation and Key Metrics - The company's P/E ratio for 2024E is 42x, with a P/B ratio of 4.4x [7] - EV/EBITDA for 2024E is projected at 33.05x, indicating a relatively high valuation [7] - The dividend yield for 2024E is expected to be 0.54%, down from 1.06% in 2023A [7]