Guangzhou Restaurant(603043) 光大证券·2024-11-01 11:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guangzhou Restaurant (603043 SH) [3] Core Views - Guangzhou Restaurant's Q3 2024 performance was impacted by weak consumer demand, particularly in the mooncake segment, leading to a slowdown in revenue growth [1][2] - The company's profitability is under short-term pressure due to changes in product mix and lower gross margins [3] - The report expects a potential recovery in mooncake sales in 2025 due to the coincidence of Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Guangzhou Restaurant achieved revenue of RMB 2 19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2 3%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 390 million, down 5 3% year-on-year [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue reached RMB 4 1 billion, up 5 9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 450 million, down 8 9% year-on-year [1] Business Segment Analysis - Mooncake segment: Q3 revenue of RMB 1 409 billion, up only 0 1% year-on-year, affected by weak consumer demand and delayed distributor stocking [2] - Frozen food segment: Q3 revenue of RMB 232 million, down 4 8% year-on-year [2] - Catering segment: Q3 revenue of RMB 367 million, up 17 3% year-on-year, driven by expansion of directly operated stores [2] - Other products: Q3 revenue of RMB 157 million, up 0 6% year-on-year [2] Regional Performance - Guangdong Province: Q3 revenue of RMB 1 297 billion, up 0 7% year-on-year [2] - Outside Guangdong Province: Q3 revenue of RMB 480 million, down 2 3% year-on-year [2] - Overseas: Q3 revenue of RMB 22 million, down 24 8% year-on-year [2] Profitability Analysis - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 39 49%, down 2 84 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to changes in product mix [3] - Net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 18 33%, down 1 36 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Sales expense ratio for Q3 2024 was 7 28%, down 0 87 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting improved cost control [3] Valuation and Forecast - The report revised down the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to RMB 509 million, RMB 584 million, and RMB 664 million respectively, representing reductions of 8%, 7%, and 5% [3] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is estimated at 18x, 16x, and 14x respectively [3] - The report suggests focusing on mooncake sales performance during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and the company's expansion outside Guangdong Province in the medium to long term [3]