SF Holding(002352) 国海证券·2024-11-01 11:52Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth and profit margin recovery, indicating a potential turning point in its fundamentals [11][13] - Cost reduction initiatives and operational model transformations are expected to enhance profitability and operational efficiency [11][13] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 206.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.62 billion yuan, up 21.59% year-on-year [4][9] - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 13.96%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.97 percentage points [3][6] - The operating cost as a percentage of revenue decreased to 86.04%, down 0.97 percentage points year-on-year [3][6] Business Segment Performance - The company completed 9.428 billion parcels in Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.54% [5] - The average revenue per parcel was 15.89 yuan, down 5.35% year-on-year [5] - The express logistics segment generated revenue of 149.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.42% [9][10] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 285.08 billion yuan, 314.05 billion yuan, and 345.36 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a consistent growth rate of 10% [15][17] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 10.23 billion yuan, 11.54 billion yuan, and 13.05 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 24%, 13%, and 13% respectively [15][17] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.12 yuan, 2.40 yuan, and 2.71 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [15][17]