China National Gold (600916) 国泰君安·2024-11-01 12:14Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][11]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 was slightly below expectations, with revenue driven by investment gold demand, while changes in sales structure impacted profitability [2][11]. - The company anticipates stable store numbers in 2024, awaiting a recovery in consumer confidence [2][11]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 46.575 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.73%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 746 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.64% [1][3]. - In Q3 2024 alone, the company reported revenue of 11.419 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.78%, and a net profit of 151 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.71% [1][3]. - The company adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.63, 0.71, and 0.80 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.67, 0.77, and 0.89 yuan [1][11]. Sales Structure and Store Operations - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 3.62%, down by 0.60 percentage points, primarily due to changes in product sales structure, with an increased proportion of gold bar sales [1][3]. - The number of stores remained stable, with a net closure of 51 franchise stores in Q3 2024, while plans for Q4 2024 include the opening of 181 new stores [1][3]. Market Valuation - The target price for the company has been adjusted to 10.21 yuan, down from 10.39 yuan, based on a PE ratio of 16.2 times for 2024 [1][11]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2024 is estimated at 20.14 times [11].