Shanxi Coking Coal Energy (000983) 国海证券·2024-11-01 12:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Coking Coal is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3][6] Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in coking coal prices has negatively impacted the company's performance in the third quarter, despite the company being a leader in the coking coal industry with abundant resource reserves [1][2] - The report anticipates a potential recovery in coking coal prices due to low inventory levels at downstream steel and coking plants, which may lead to increased demand for replenishment towards the end of the year [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 33.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.846 billion yuan, down 49.52% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 11.52 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.58% but a year-on-year decrease of 12.28% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 880 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.42% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.54% [2] Price and Market Data - The current stock price is 8.23 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 7.07 to 12.45 yuan [2] - The total market capitalization is approximately 46.72 billion yuan, and the circulating market capitalization is about 38.19 billion yuan [2] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 48.406 billion yuan, 50.323 billion yuan, and 52.039 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.846 billion yuan, 4.389 billion yuan, and 5.016 billion yuan [3][4] - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.68 yuan, 0.77 yuan, and 0.88 yuan for the same years, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12, 11, and 9 respectively [3][4] Industry Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of the long-term contract mechanism for coking coal sales, which is expected to stabilize market prices gradually [3] - The company’s abundant coal reserves, totaling 6.6 billion tons as of the end of 2023, are highlighted as a significant advantage [3]