泸州老窖：2024Q3业绩点评：及时调整，承前启后

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.3 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, and a net profit of 11.59 billion yuan, up 9.7% year-on-year. The revenue growth in Q3 was 7.4 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, while net profit grew by 2.6% [2] - The company has adjusted its strategy to prioritize sales and inventory management, focusing on actual sales rather than strict collection requirements. This approach aims to stabilize channel relationships and mitigate risks [2][3] - The gross margin slightly decreased, attributed to a slowdown in the growth of the flagship product, while the company has optimized its expense structure, leading to an improvement in net profit margin [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 25.12 billion yuan, increasing to 30.23 billion yuan in 2023, with projections of 32.25 billion yuan in 2024, 35.57 billion yuan in 2025, and 40.96 billion yuan in 2026. The year-on-year growth rates are 21.71%, 20.34%, 6.66%, 10.30%, and 15.17% respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.365 billion yuan in 2022, rising to 13.246 billion yuan in 2023, with forecasts of 14.145 billion yuan in 2024, 15.763 billion yuan in 2025, and 18.461 billion yuan in 2026. The year-on-year growth rates are 30.29%, 27.79%, 6.79%, 11.44%, and 17.11% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 9.61 yuan in 2024, 10.71 yuan in 2025, and 12.54 yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.24, 12.78, and 10.91 [1] Strategic Adjustments - The company has been focusing on product diversification and maintaining a balance between premium and mid-range products, which has helped in sustaining revenue amidst a challenging consumption environment [3] - The company has implemented measures to enhance consumer engagement, such as promotional activities and product launches, which have contributed to maintaining stable sales performance [3] Market Position - The company's market capitalization is approximately 201.38 billion yuan, with a closing price of 136.81 yuan per share [6] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 4.43 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 31.46% [7]