Muyuan Foods (002714) 国海证券·2024-11-01 14:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a significant turnaround in profitability, with revenue of 96.775 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.481 billion yuan, compared to a loss in the same period last year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 39.909 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.652 billion yuan, showing a substantial improvement in profitability [2] - The company's pig farming business saw stable growth, with 50.144 million pigs sold in the first nine months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [2] - The company's pig slaughtering and meat processing business processed 7.97 million pigs in the first nine months of 2024, with a capacity utilization rate of 37%, resulting in a loss of approximately 650 million yuan [2] - The company's pig farming costs have been continuously optimized, with the full cost of pig farming dropping to below 13.7 yuan/kg in September 2024, a decrease of over 2 yuan/kg compared to the beginning of the year [2] - The company announced a profit distribution plan for the first three quarters of 2024, proposing to distribute a cash dividend of 8.31 yuan per 10 shares (tax included), with a total dividend of 4.505 billion yuan (tax included), accounting for 40.06% of the company's net profit from January to September 2024 [2] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 133.371 billion yuan, 136.809 billion yuan, and 134.482 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits attributable to the parent company of 17.6 billion yuan, 15.577 billion yuan, and 16.304 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 14x, 15x, and 15x, respectively [3] - The company's ROE is expected to be 23%, 18%, and 17% for 2024-2026, respectively [6] - The company's gross margin is expected to be 19%, 17%, and 18% for 2024-2026, respectively [8] - The company's net profit margin is expected to be 13%, 11%, and 12% for 2024-2026, respectively [8] Operational Performance - The company's pig farming production indicators have been continuously optimized, with a survival rate of nearly 85% in September 2024, a PSY of over 28, a feed-to-meat ratio of 2.87 during the fattening stage, and a daily weight gain of 783g for fattening pigs [2] - The company's total assets turnover rate is expected to be 0.68, 0.68, and 0.63 for 2024-2026, respectively [8] - The company's inventory turnover rate is expected to be 2.57, 2.65, and 2.54 for 2024-2026, respectively [8] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/B ratio is expected to be 3.19, 2.77, and 2.44 for 2024-2026, respectively [6] - The company's P/S ratio is expected to be 1.80, 1.76, and 1.79 for 2024-2026, respectively [6] - The company's EV/EBITDA is expected to be 7.92, 7.79, and 7.05 for 2024-2026, respectively [6]