KORRUN(300577) 东吴证券·2024-11-01 20:06Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" [1][4] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.025 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.48%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 321 million yuan, up 165% year-on-year [2] - The significant revenue increase in Q3 is attributed to the consolidation of Shanghai Jiale's financials, which contributed to a substantial rise in income, although profit growth was slightly lower due to Jiale's current efficiency ramp-up phase [2][3] - The brand business is expected to see a double-digit revenue growth in Q3, primarily driven by Xiaomi's distribution, which accounts for approximately 65% of brand revenue [2] - The company is expanding its production capacity in Indonesia, with expectations of a 50%-60% increase in bag production capacity and a 65%-70% increase in garment capacity by 2026-2027 [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 2.741 billion yuan, with projections of 3.105 billion yuan for 2023, 4.148 billion yuan for 2024, 5.034 billion yuan for 2025, and 6.059 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 33.61% from 2023 to 2024 [1][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 116 million yuan in 2023 to 394 million yuan in 2024, and further to 479 million yuan in 2026, indicating a significant growth trajectory [1][10] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to rise from 0.48 yuan in 2023 to 1.64 yuan in 2024, and reach 2.00 yuan by 2026 [1][10] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 21.96%, influenced by lower margins from the bag manufacturing and garment outsourcing segments [3] - The company’s expense ratio for Q3 2024 decreased by 2.39 percentage points to 14.81%, primarily due to lower expense ratios in Jiale's outsourcing business compared to the original 2C business [3]