EXPL(002096) 东吴证券·2024-11-01 21:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported steady growth in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 6.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 520 million yuan, up 10.7% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of 2.39 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 170 million yuan, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to see an increase in the proportion of revenue from mining services, despite a slight decline in revenue from explosive materials due to strategic market exits and insufficient demand in certain regions [2][4] - The company has a robust order book for blasting services, with new contracts signed amounting to 7.98 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, primarily from the Xinjiang region [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 1.78 billion yuan, 2.14 billion yuan, and 2.39 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.5%, -7.0%, and 4.6% respectively [2] - The gross profit margins for these quarters were 21.3%, 26.0%, and 23.1%, showing slight fluctuations year-on-year [2] - The company has successfully reduced sales and management expense ratios, leading to improved operational cash flow, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching 430 million yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 234.7% [3] - As of Q3 2024, the company had a total debt of 400 million yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 30.9% [3][7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 722.82 million yuan, 865.01 million yuan, and 1,017.06 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios based on the closing price on October 31 are estimated to be 21.14, 17.67, and 15.03 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][4]