DHI(002487) 民生证券·2024-11-02 02:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, citing its strong growth potential and market share expansion in the wind power industry [3][5] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with a significant shift towards offshore wind power projects, which now account for over 60% of total revenue [2] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 2.306 billion, down 30.81% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 282 million, down 30.88% YoY [2] - Gross margin improved to 27.19% in the first three quarters of 2024, up 2.99 percentage points YoY, driven by the optimization of the business structure towards offshore projects [2] - The company successfully delivered multiple offshore projects, including the MorayWest offshore wind farm in Scotland and the NOY-llesD'Yeu et Noirmoutier project in France, with new projects for the Baltic region set for delivery in 2025 [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 3.7 billion, RMB 6.0 billion, and RMB 7.7 billion, with growth rates of -15%, 62%, and 28% respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 437 million, RMB 809 million, and RMB 1.163 billion for 2024-2026, with growth rates of 3%, 85%, and 44% respectively [3] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to be 34x, 19x, and 13x for 2024-2026, reflecting strong earnings growth potential [3] Business Structure and Profitability - The company's offshore and domestic offshore business accounted for over 60% of total revenue in Q3 2024, up 10 percentage points YoY [2] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 25.22%, up 0.64 percentage points YoY, while net margin was 11.38%, up 0.74 percentage points YoY [2] - The company's transformation towards offshore wind power has significantly improved profitability, with gross margin reaching 27.19% in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] Key Financial Metrics - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 6.05% in 2024 to 13.12% in 2026, driven by higher profitability and efficiency [6] - EPS is projected to grow from RMB 0.69 in 2024 to RMB 1.82 in 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [6] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to remain stable, ranging from 27.86% to 33.51% over the forecast period [6]