CCCC(601800) 东吴证券·2024-11-02 07:37Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) [1][2] Core Views - The company reported a significant one-time gain from the disposal of a subsidiary, leading to improved operating cash flow on a quarter-over-quarter basis [2] - CCCC is positioned as a leading large-scale infrastructure service provider in China and is expected to benefit from the "Belt and Road" initiative [2] - The company has shown stable growth in new contract signings, particularly in overseas and emerging sectors, contributing to revenue stability [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, CCCC achieved total revenue of 536.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 16.3 billion yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year [2] - The third quarter alone saw revenues of 179.2 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.7% and 0.7% respectively [2] - The company maintained a good control over its expense ratios, with a comprehensive gross margin of 11.3% in Q3, slightly down from the previous quarter [2] Cash Flow and Debt Management - Operating cash flow for Q3 was -2.89 billion yuan, showing a significant improvement compared to the previous quarter's outflow [2] - As of the end of Q3, the company had interest-bearing debt of 650.2 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 75.2%, remaining stable compared to the beginning of the year [2] Contract Signing and Growth - CCCC signed new contracts worth 1.2805 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, with Q3 alone contributing 319.6 billion yuan, up 12.1% year-on-year [2] - The company is actively expanding its emerging business sectors, achieving new contracts worth 390 billion yuan in these areas, a 27% increase year-on-year [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 24.8 billion, 26.2 billion, and 27.8 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a slight downward revision due to domestic infrastructure growth slowing and impairment losses [2] - The price-to-earnings ratio based on the closing price on October 31 corresponds to 6.8, 6.4, and 6.0 times for 2024-2026 [2]