香飘飘：公司信息更新报告：即饮业务发展稳健，预计冲泡旺季贡献利润

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in its brewing business, but the upcoming winter brewing season is expected to reverse this trend, leading to a significant profit contribution in Q4 [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 18 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 409.0% [1] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is 330 million, 400 million, and 490 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 19.0%, 20.9%, and 22.0% respectively [1] Revenue Analysis - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 6.1%, with the brewing segment generating 500 million yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year, due to weak external demand [2] - The ready-to-drink segment saw revenue growth of 17.8%, reaching 250 million yuan, driven by steady growth in products like Meco fruit juice tea and frozen lemon tea [2] - The company added a net of 76 distributors in Q3, with significant increases in the East China and Central China regions [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 40.9%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in raw material and freight costs [3] - The selling expense ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the management expense ratio rose by 1.0 percentage points, mainly due to stock incentive costs [3] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 improved by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, despite a slight decline in net profit [3] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.262 billion, 4.920 billion, and 5.674 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.6%, 15.4%, and 15.3% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 334 million yuan in 2024 to 403 million yuan in 2025 and 492 million yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 19.0%, 20.9%, and 22.0% [4] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 16.0 in 2024 to 10.8 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [4]