Cofco Sugar(600737) 中泰证券·2024-11-03 01:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for COFCO Sugar Industry is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 was impacted by cyclical factors, with revenue of 22.713 billion yuan, down 4.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.162 billion yuan, down 19.33% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw a revenue drop of 30.41% and a net profit decline of 55.41% [1] - The company has launched a "Quality Improvement and Efficiency Enhancement" action plan, focusing on core business and technological innovation [1] - The sugar market is experiencing different degrees of production increase, but low market demand and falling prices are putting pressure on performance, which aligns with market expectations [1] - The company is actively adjusting inventory levels and expects challenges in Q4 due to low sugar prices and new sugar pricing [1] - The tomato processing segment is expected to see significant growth, driven by expanding applications in various food products [1] - The company maintains a positive long-term outlook for its tomato products, with strong online sales [1] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 33.42 billion yuan, 36.03 billion yuan, and 39.91 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 1.709 billion yuan, 2.337 billion yuan, and 3.476 billion yuan [1] - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters was 10.22%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points year-on-year, while the third quarter gross margin was 9.83%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 12.2 in 2024E to 6.0 in 2026E, indicating an increasing valuation premium [1][3]